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Prediction of solar cycle based on the invariant

机译：基于不变量的太阳周期预测

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A new method of predicting solar activities has been introduced in this paper. The method can predict both the occurrence time and the maximum number of sunspot at the same time. By studying the Variation of sunspot, we find that the combination of the several variables was nearly invariable during the entire solar cycles, as called invariant. And just only by determining the start time of a cycle, we can predict the occurrence time of cycle's peak value accurately. Furthermore, according to observational data of the sunspot cycles, it showed that the sunspot maximum number has correlation not only with the prophase variety of the number in the cycle but also with the anaphase of the previous period. So we can introduce an equivalent regression coefficient, which can dynamically self-adapt to different cycle lengths, and effectively solve the inconsistency between the accuracy and the lead-time of the forecast. It can guarantee the satis-fied accuracy and effectively increases the lead-time of the forecast. This method can predict the maximum sunspot number for solar cycle at the approximate half rise of the period. This method predicts that the occurrence time of the maximum sunspot number for cycle 24 will be in January 2011.
机译：本文介绍了一种预测太阳活动的新方法。该方法可以同时预测太阳黑子的出现时间和最大黑子数。通过研究太阳黑子的变化，我们发现几个变量的组合在整个太阳周期内几乎是不变的，称为不变。仅通过确定一个周期的开始时间，我们就可以准确预测出周期峰值的出现时间。此外，根据太阳黑子周期的观测数据表明，黑子的最大数目不仅与周期中数字的前期变化有关，而且与前期的后期有关。因此，我们可以引入一个等效的回归系数，该系数可以动态地自适应不同的周期长度，并有效地解决了预测的准确性和提前期之间的矛盾。它可以保证令人满意的准确性，并有效地增加了预测的交付时间。此方法可以在周期的大约一半上升时预测太阳周期的最大黑子数。此方法预测周期24的最大黑子数的发生时间将在2011年1月。

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