Analysis 4 The Market for General Aviation/Utility Aircraft 2013-2022

摘要

Forecast International projects that makers of general aviation and utility aircraft will ship over 20,200 aircraft worth $27 billion from 2013 through 2022. The forecast covers piston-powered and turboprop general aviation/utility aircraft and excludes production of business jets and Light Sport Aircraft. North America and Europe are the two primary regional markets for turboprop and piston-powered general aviation/utility aircraft. Ongoing economic weakness in these two markets will limit the growth in annual production in this segment in the near term. Manufacturers are looking to emerging markets around the world to increase sales of general aviation aircraft, but the general aviation operations in these areas are not growing quickly enough to substitute for weak markets in North America and Europe. Annual production in the general aviation/utility segment is forecast to total 1,581 aircraft in 2013, a little less than half of the 3,303 units shipped in 2006, the peak year of production during the last decade. Production is forecast to climb in 2014 and then increase gradually through 2020, when manufacturers are forecast to deliver almost 2,400 during the year. The forecast assumes that the market will begin a cyclical downturn in 2021, with annual production falling to 1,822 aircraft by 2022. Broken down by engine type, production of piston aircraft is forecast to total 14,010 aircraft worth $6.8 billion during the forecast period. Production of turboprops during 2013-2022 will top 6,229 aircraft worth approximately $20.1 billion. Demand for turboprop general aviation aircraft held up much better after the recession than demand for piston aircraft. Turboprop aircraft are more likely to be used in commercial utility operations than piston aircraft, allowing the segment to largely avoid the carnage caused in the piston market when wealth destruction and tighter credit conditions lead private owner/pilots to cancel orders or forgo buying new aircraft. Turboprop manufacturers have also benefited from the high fuel prices during much of the past decade, since turboprops typically offer greater efficiency and lower operating costs compared to jets of the same seating range, encouraging the use of turboprop aircraft on short routes. Avgas is also unavailable or difficult to find in much of the world outside North America, and in many regions operators are forced to use turboprop utility and agricultural aircraft instead of piston aircraft. With the use of Avgas expected to be restricted in the United States in coming years, piston manufacturers like Cessna and Diamond are using turbo-diesel engines to allow use of jet fuel and kerosene (and in some cases motor diesel) in small aircraft. Other manufacturers are likely to follow suit. Demand in the piston segment remains weak. Deliveries of piston general aviation and utility aircraft in 2012 totaled just over 900 aircraft, only 32 percent of the more than 2,800 piston aircraft delivered in 2006. The piston market is forecast to grow slowly in coming years, but growth will be hampered by the high cost of purchasing and maintaining a personal aircraft. With four-seat single-engine aircraft costing $350,000-$500,000, the pool of potential owner/users is limited. Lenders are more cautious with financing than they were prior to the credit crisis. With the segment still facing persistent headwinds, production of piston aircraft is not forecast to reach its 2006 peak during the next decade.

机译：预测国际公司预测，从2013年到2022年，通用航空和多用途飞机的制造商将交付20,200多架飞机，价值270亿美元。该预测涵盖了活塞动力和涡轮螺旋桨通用航空/多用途飞机，但不包括公务机和轻型运动飞机的生产。北美和欧洲是涡轮螺旋桨飞机和活塞动力通用航空/通用飞机的两个主要区域市场。这两个市场持续的经济疲软将在短期内限制该细分市场的年产量增长。制造商希望全球范围内的新兴市场增加通用航空飞机的销量，但是这些地区的通用航空运营增长速度不足以替代北美和欧洲疲弱的市场。到2013年，通用航空/公用事业部门的年产量预计将达到1,581架飞机，略低于过去十年中生产高峰的2006年3,303架的一半。预计2014年产量将攀升，然后到2020年逐步增加，届时制造商预计将交付2400辆。该预测假设市场将在2021年开始周期性下降，到2022年年产量将下降到1,822架飞机。按发动机类型细分，在预测期内，活塞式飞机的产量预计将达到14,010架，价值68亿美元。 2013-2022年间，涡轮螺旋桨飞机的产量将超过6,229架，价值约201亿美元。经济衰退后，涡轮螺旋桨通用航空飞机的需求比活塞飞机的需求要好得多。涡轮螺旋桨飞机比活塞飞机更可能用于商业用途，从而使该细分市场在很大程度上避免了当财富破坏和信贷条件趋紧导致私人拥有者/飞行员取消订单或放弃购买新飞机时活塞市场造成的大屠杀。在过去十年的大部分时间里，涡轮螺旋桨飞机制造商也从高油价中受益，因为与相同座位范围的喷气飞机相比，涡轮螺旋桨飞机通常具有更高的效率和更低的运营成本，这鼓励在短途航线上使用涡轮螺旋桨飞机。在北美以外的世界上许多地区，Avgas也不可用或很难找到，而且在许多地区，运营商被迫使用涡轮螺旋桨飞机和农用飞机而非活塞式飞机。由于预计未来几年美国将限制使用Avgas，塞斯纳（Cessna）和戴蒙德（Diamond）等活塞制造商正在使用涡轮柴油发动机，以便在小型飞机中使用喷气燃料和煤油（在某些情况下还包括机动柴油）。其他制造商可能也会效仿。活塞领域的需求仍然疲软。 2012年活塞通用航空和多用途飞机的交付量总计超过900架，仅占2006年交付的2,800活塞飞机的32％。预计未来几年活塞市场增长缓慢，但高增长将阻碍增长购买和维护私人飞机的成本。四座单引擎飞机的价格在$ 350,000- $ 500,000之间，潜在的拥有者/用户数量有限。与信贷危机之前相比，贷款人对融资更为谨慎。由于这一细分市场仍然面临持续的逆风，预计未来十年活塞式飞机的产量不会达到2006年的峰值。

Analysis 4 The Market for General Aviation/Utility Aircraft 2013-2022

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