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Evolution of the Nile River drought risk based on the streamflow record at Aswan station, Egypt

机译：基于埃及阿斯旺站流量记录的尼罗河干旱风险演变

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The drought in Ethiopian Highlands, source of the Nile flood, has been in the news off and on since the early 1970s, to such an extent that it can be inquired if the Nile basin users are exposed to a drought risk increasing in time. Based on a methodology developed by the author and previously used for flood risk assessment, this article aims to study the progressive modification of the likelihood of occurrence of a certain drought event in the Nile River, based on the annual record available at the Aswan station, Egypt. The record is thoroughly studied to detect possible trends and seasonalities. It is then divided into subsamples, on which frequency analyses were performed using the linear moments (L-moments) method. L-moments perform well with short records and are less sensitive to extremes. The 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year droughts are estimated based on every subsample, then the temporal evolutions of these estimates are investigated. The results show a cyclic pattern of the drought risk, confirming the previously suggested non-stationarity of the flow series as one of the possible interpretation of the Hurst phenomenon.
机译：自1970年代初以来，尼罗河洪灾的根源-埃塞俄比亚高地的干旱便已成为新闻头条，可以查询尼罗河流域的使用者是否面临随着时间增加的干旱风险。根据作者开发的方法并先前用于洪水风险评估，本文旨在根据阿斯旺站提供的年度记录，研究尼罗河中某些干旱事件发生的可能性的逐步修正，埃及。对记录进行了彻底研究，以发现可能的趋势和季节性。然后将其分为子样本，使用线性矩（L矩）方法对子样本进行频率分析。 L力矩在短记录下表现良好，并且对极端情况不太敏感。根据每个子样本估算10年，25年，50年和100年的干旱，然后研究这些估算的时间演变。结果表明干旱风险具有周期性，证实了先前提出的水流序列的非平稳性是对赫斯特现象的一种可能解释。

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