It has been interesting to see how the focus on Tolvik's recently released report, RDF Exports: Here for Good?, was on our projection that UK refuse-derived fuel (RDF) exports were unlikely to exceed 2.5m tonnes (Mt) per annum. Unfortunately, a number missed the clarification that this would be "on a sustained basis". So does this matter? Yes. The latest available data for 2014 suggests that RDF exports from the UK totalled just above 2.6Mt (England and Wales 2.4Mt combined, Scotland 0.1Mt and Northern Ireland 0.1Mt). Without this additional clarification it would be reasonable to infer that our view was that RDF exports reached their peak in 2014 and will start to decline from 2015 onwards. This is not the case. Whilst RDF exports from the UK have recently levelled out at around 200kt per month, it is pretty likely that, sometime in the near future, exports will "kick on" again to a higher monthly total -reflecting the clear appetite in Europe to take further RDF from the UK, provided it is on acceptable commercial terms. This demand is unsurprising - the report identifies that, without decommissioning, incinerator over-capacity in northern Europe could rise to between 9.1Mt and 12.1Mt by 2020.
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