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ENSO, the IOD and the intraseasonal prediction of heat extremes across Australia using POAMA-2

机译：使用POAMA-2进行的ENSO，IOD和澳大利亚对极端温度的季节内预报

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The simulation and prediction of extreme heat over Australia on intraseasonal timescales in association with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is assessed using the Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). The analysis is based on hindcasts over 1981-2010 and focuses on weeks 2 and 3 of the forecasts, i.e. beyond a typical weather forecast. POAMA simulates the observed increased probabilities of extreme heat during El Nino events, focussed over south eastern and southern Australia in SON and over northern Australia in DJF, and the decreased probabilities of extreme heat during La Nina events, although the magnitude of these relationships is smaller than observed. POAMA also captures the signal of increased probabilities of extreme heat during positive phases of the IOD across southern Australia in SON and over Western Australia in JJA, but again underestimates the strength of the relationship. Shortcomings in the simulation of extreme heat in association with ENSO and the IOD over southern Australia may be linked to deficiencies in the teleconnection with Indian Ocean SSTs. Forecast skill for intraseasonal episodes of extreme heat is assessed using the Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index. Skill is highest over northern Australia in MAM and JJA and over south-eastern and eastern Australia in JJA and SON, whereas skill is generally poor over south-west Western Australia. Results show there are windows of forecast opportunity related to the state of ENSO and the IOD, where the skill in predicting extreme temperatures over certain regions is increased.
机译：使用气象局的澳大利亚预测性海洋大气模型（POAMA）评估了澳大利亚的极端热量在季节内时间尺度上与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）和印度洋偶极子（IOD）相关的模拟和预测。该分析基于1981-2010年的后继预报，重点是预报的第2周和第3周，即超出了典型的天气预报。 POAMA模拟了厄尔尼诺事件期间观察到的极端高温的概率增加，虽然这些关系的幅度较小，但是它集中于SON的澳大利亚东南部和南部以及DJF的澳大利亚北部，以及La Nina事件期间的极端高温的概率降低。比观察到的。 POAMA还在SON的南澳大利亚州和JJA的西澳大利亚州的IOD正相期间捕获了极端高温可能性增加的信号，但再次低估了这种关系的强度。与ENSO和IOD一起在澳大利亚南部进行的极端高温模拟的缺点可能与印度洋SST的遥距连接不足有关。使用Symmetric Extremal Dependency Index评估极端高温的季节内发作的预测技能。在MAM和JJA中，澳大利亚北部的技能最高，在JJA和SON中，东南澳大利亚和东部的技能最高，而在西澳大利亚州西南部，技能通常较差。结果表明，存在与ENSO和IOD状态有关的预测机会的窗口，这些窗口增加了预测某些地区极端温度的技能。

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