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首页> 外文期刊>Climate dynamics >Sources of uncertainty in projections of twenty-first century westerly wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, in CMIP5 climate models
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Sources of uncertainty in projections of twenty-first century westerly wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, in CMIP5 climate models

机译：在CMIP5气候模式中，南极西部阿蒙森海上空的21世纪西风变化预测的不确定性来源

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摘要

The influence of changes in winds over the Amundsen Sea has been shown to be a potentially key mechanism in explaining rapid loss of ice from major glaciers in West Antarctica, which is having a significant impact on global sea level. Here, Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model data are used to assess twenty-first century projections in westerly winds over the Amundsen Sea (U_(as))- The importance of model uncertainty and internal climate variability in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario projections are quantified and potential sources of model uncertainty are considered. For the decade 2090-2099 the CMIP5 models show an ensemble mean twenty-first century response in annual mean U_(AS) of 0.3 and 0.7 m s~(-1) following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. However, as a consequence of large internal climate variability over the Amundsen Sea, it takes until around 2030 (2065) for the RCP8.5 response to exceed one (two) standard deviation(s) of decadal internal variability. In all scenarios and seasons the model uncertainty is large. However the present-day cli-matological zonal wind bias over the whole South Pacific, which is important for tropical teleconnections, is strongly related to inter-model differences in projected change in H_(as) (more skilful models show larger U_(AS) increases). This relationship is significant in winter (r = -0.56) and spring (r = -0.65), when the influence of the tropics on the Amundsen Sea region is known to be important. Horizontal grid spacing and present day sea ice extent are not significant sources of inter-model spread.
机译：事实证明，阿蒙森海上风的变化的影响是解释南极西部主要冰川迅速流失冰的潜在关键机制，这对全球海平面产生了重大影响。在这里，比较模型间比较项目阶段5（CMIP5）的气候模型数据用于评估阿蒙森海（U_（as））上西风的21世纪预测-RCP4中模型不确定性和内部气候变化的重要性.5和RCP8.5情景预测被量化，并考虑了模型不确定性的潜在来源。在2090-2099的10年中，CMIP5模型分别遵循RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景，分别在0.3和0.7 m s〜（-1）的年平均U_（AS）下显示了21世纪整体平均响应。但是，由于阿蒙森海内部气候变化较大，直到2030年（2065年）RCP8.5响应超过十年内部变化的一两个标准偏差。在所有场景和季节中，模型不确定性都很大。然而，当今对整个热带气候遥相关的整个南太平洋的气候纬向风偏向与H_（as）的预计变化的模型间差异密切相关（更多的熟练模型显示更大的U_（AS）增加）。当已知热带地区对阿蒙森海地区的影响很重要时，这种关系在冬季（r = -0.56）和春季（r = -0.65）很重要。水平网格间距和当今海冰范围并不是模型间传播的重要来源。

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