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首页> 外文期刊>Climate dynamics >The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall
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The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

机译：阿拉伯海北部表面温度偏差在CMIP5模型模拟和印度夏季季风降雨的未来预测中的作用

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Many climate models have problems simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its variability, resulting in considerable uncertainty in future projections. Problems may relate to many factors, such as local effects of the formulation of physical parametrisation schemes, while common model biases that develop elsewhere within the climate system may also be important. Here we examine the extent and impact of cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases developing in the northern Arabian Sea in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, where such SST biases are shown to be common. Such biases have previously been shown to reduce monsoon rainfall in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) by weakening moisture fluxes incident upon India. The Arabian Sea SST biases in CMIP5 models consistently develop in winter, via strengthening of the winter monsoon circulation, and persist into spring and summer. A clear relationship exists between Arabian Sea cold SST bias and weak monsoon rainfall in CMIP5 models, similar to effects in the MetUM. Part of this effect may also relate to other factors, such as forcing of the early monsoon by spring-time excessive equatorial precipitation. Atmosphere-only future time-slice experiments show that Arabian Sea cold SST biases have potential to weaken future monsoon rainfall increases by limiting moisture flux acceleration through non-linearity of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Analysis of CMIP5 model future scenario simulations suggests that such effects are small compared to other sources of uncertainty,although models with large Arabian Sea cold SST biases may suppress the range of potential outcomes for changes to future early monsoon rainfall.
机译：许多气候模型在模拟印度夏季季风降雨及其变化方面都存在问题，导致未来预测存在很大不确定性。问题可能与许多因素有关，例如物理参数化方案制定的局部影响，而在气候系统内其他地方产生的常见模型偏差也可能很重要。在这里，我们研究了在CMIP5多模型合集中阿拉伯北部海域发展的冷海表面温度（SST）偏差的程度和影响，其中这种SST偏差被证明是常见的。以前已经证明，这种偏见通过减弱入射到印度的水分通量来减少Met Office统一模型（MetUM）中的季风降雨。 CMIP5模型中的阿拉伯海海温偏差在冬季通过加强冬季季风环流持续发展，并持续到春季和夏季。类似于MetUM中的效应，在CMIP5模型中，阿拉伯海冷SST偏差与弱季风降雨之间存在明显的关系。这种影响的一部分可能还与其他因素有关，例如春季赤道过大的降水强迫了季风。仅大气层的未来时间切片实验表明，阿拉伯海的冷SST偏差有可能通过克劳修斯-克拉珀龙关系的非线性来限制水汽通量加速度，从而减弱未来的季风降雨增加。对CMIP5模型未来情景模拟的分析表明，与其他不确定性来源相比，这种影响很小，尽管阿拉伯海冷SST偏差较大的模型可能会抑制未来早期季风降雨变化的潜在结果范围。

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