...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Climate dynamics >Summer temperatures in Europe and land heat fluxes in observation-based data and regional climate model simulations
【24h】

Summer temperatures in Europe and land heat fluxes in observation-based data and regional climate model simulations

机译：基于观测数据和区域气候模型模拟中的欧洲夏季温度和陆地热通量

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The occurrence and intensity of heatwaves is expected to increase with climate change. Early warnings of hot summers have therefore a great socio-economical value. Previous studies have shown that hot summers are preceded by a Southern European rainfall deficit during winter, and higher spring temperatures. Changes in the surface energy budget are believed to drive this evolution, in particular changes in the latent and sensible heat fluxes. However these have rarely been investigated due to the lack of long-term reliable observation data. In this study, we analyzed several data-derived gridded products of latent and sensible heat fluxes, based on flux tower observations, together with re-analyses and regional climate model simulations over Europe. We find that warm summers are preceded by an increase in latent heat flux in early spring. During warm summers, an increase in available energy results in an excess of both latent and sensible heat fluxes over most of Europe, but a latent heat flux decrease over the Iberian Peninsula. This indicates that, on average, a summertime soil-moisture limited evapo-transpiration regime only prevails in the Iberian Peninsula. In general, the models that we analyzed overestimate latent heat and underestimate sensible heat as compared to the flux tower derived data-product. Most models show considerable drying during warm seasons, leading to the establishment of a soil-moisture limited regime across Europe in summer. This over-estimation by the current generation of models of latent heat and hence of soil moisture deficit over Europe in summer has potential consequences for future summertime climate projections and the projected frequency of heat waves. We also show that a northward propagation of drought during warm summers is found in model results, a phenomenon which is also seen in the flux tower data-product. Our results lead to a better understanding of the role of latent and sensible heat flux in summer heatwaves, and provide a framework for benchmark of modeling studies.
机译：预计热浪的发生和强度会随着气候变化而增加。因此，炎热夏季的预警具有巨大的社会经济价值。先前的研究表明，炎热的夏季之前是冬季的南欧降雨不足和春季的高温。据信表面能收支的变​​化将推动这种发展，特别是潜热通量和显热通量的变化。然而，由于缺乏长期可靠的观测数据，很少对此进行研究。在这项研究中，我们基于流量塔的观测结果，再分析和对欧洲区域气候模式进行了模拟，分析了几种基于数据的潜热通量和感热通量的网格产品。我们发现，在温暖的夏天之前，早春的潜热通量增加。在炎热的夏天，可用能量的增加导致整个欧洲大部分地区的潜热通量和显热通量都过剩，但是伊比利亚半岛的潜热通量却减少了。这表明，平均而言，夏季土壤水分有限的蒸散量仅在伊比利亚半岛盛行。通常，与通量塔得出的数据产品相比，我们分析的模型高估了潜热，而低估了显热。大多数模型在温暖的季节表现出相当大的干燥度，导致夏季整个欧洲建立了土壤水分有限的体系。当前一代模型对欧洲夏季的潜热和土壤湿度不足的这种高估，可能对未来的夏季气候预测和热浪的预测频率产生潜在影响。我们还显示，在模型结果中发现在温暖的夏季干旱向北传播，这种现象在通量塔数据产品中也可见。我们的结果可以更好地理解潜热通量和感热通量在夏季热浪中的作用，并为建模研究的基准提供框架。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号