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Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles

机译：气候模型错误，反馈和强迫：扰动物理学和多模型合奏的比较

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摘要

Ensembles of climate model simulations are required for input into probabilistic assessments of the risk of future climate change in which uncertainties are quantified. Here we document and compare aspects of climate model ensembles from the multi-model archive and from perturbed physics ensembles generated using the third version of the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3). Model-error characteristics derived from time-averaged two-dimensional fields of observed climate variables indicate that the perturbed physics approach is capable of sampling a relatively wide range of different mean climate states, consistent with simple estimates of observational uncertainty and comparable to the range of mean states sampled by the multi-model ensemble. The perturbed physics approach is also capable of sampling a relatively wide range of climate forcings and climate feedbacks under enhanced levels of greenhouse gases, again comparable with the multi-model ensemble. By examining correlations between global time-averaged measures of model error and global measures of climate change feedback strengths, we conclude that there are no simple emergent relationships between climate model errors and the magnitude of future global temperature change. Algorithms for quantifying uncertainty require the use of complex multivariate metrics for constraining projections.
机译：需要将气候模型模拟的集合体输入到未来气候变化风险的概率评估中，其中对不确定性进行了量化。在这里，我们记录和比较了来自多模型档案库和使用第三版哈德利中心气候模型（HadCM3）生成的扰动物理集合的气候模型集合的各个方面。从观测到的气候变量的时间平均二维场得出的模型误差特征表明，受干扰的物理方法能够对相对广泛的不同平均气候状态进行采样，这与观测不确定性的简单估计相一致，并且与观测值的范围相当。多模型集合采样的平均状态。扰动的物理方法还能够在温室气体水平提高的情况下，对相对广泛的气候强迫和气候反馈进行采样，这也可以与多模式合奏相媲美。通过检查模型误差的全球时间平均度量与气候变化反馈强度的全局度量之间的相关性，我们得出结论，气候模型误差与未来全球温度变化的幅度之间没有简单的紧急关系。量化不确定性的算法需要使用复杂的多元指标来约束投影。

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