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首页> 外文期刊>Climate dynamics >Present and future climates of the Greenland ice sheet according to the IPCC AR4 models
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Present and future climates of the Greenland ice sheet according to the IPCC AR4 models

机译：根据IPCC AR4模型，格陵兰冰盖的当前和未来气候

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摘要

The atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) used for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) are evaluated for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) current climate modelling. The most suited AOGCMs for Greenland climate simulation are then selected on the basis of comparison between the 1970-1999 outputs of the Climate of the twentieth Century experiment (20C3M) and reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP/ NCAR). This comparison indicates that the representation quality of surface parameters such as temperature and precipitation are highly correlated to the atmospheric circulation (500 hPa geopotential height) and its interannual variability (North Atlantic oscillation). The outputs of the three most suitable AOGCMs for present-day climate simulation are then used to assess the changes estimated by three IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SRES) over the GrIS for the 2070-2099 period. Future atmospheric circulation changes are projected to dampen the zonal flow, enhance the meridional fluxes and therefore provide additional heat and moisture to the GrIS, increasing temperature over the whole ice sheet and precipitation over its northeastern area. We also show that the GrIS surface mass balance anomalies from the SRES A1B scenario amount to -300 km~3/year with respect to the 1970- 1999 period, leading to a global sea-level rise of 5 cm by the end of the 21 st century. This work can help to select the boundaries conditions for AOGCMs-based downscaled future projections.
机译：对IPCC第四次评估报告（IPCC AR4）中使用的大气海洋通用循环模型（AOGCM）进行了格陵兰冰盖（GrIS）当前气候模型评估。然后，在比较1970-1999年20世纪气候试验（20C3M）和重新分析（ECMWF，NCEP / NCAR）的输出的基础上，选择最适合格陵兰气候模拟的AOGCM。该比较表明，表面参数（如温度和降水）的表示质量与大气环流（500 hPa地势高度）及其年际变化（北大西洋振荡）高度相关。然后，将用于当今气候模拟的三种最合适的AOGCM的输出用于评估2070-2099年期间在GrIS上三种IPCC温室气体排放情景（SRES）估计的变化。预计未来的大气环流变化会减弱纬向气流，增加子午通量，从而为GrIS提供更多的热量和水分，从而增加整个冰原的温度，并增加其东北地区的降水。我们还显示，相对于1970-1999年，SRES A1B情景的GrIS表面质量平衡异常总计为-300 km〜3 /年，导致21世纪末全球海平面上升了5 cm。圣世纪。这项工作可以帮助为基于AOGCM的缩减的未来预测选择边界条件。

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  • 来源
    《Climate dynamics》 |2011年第10期|p.1897-1918|共22页
  • 作者

    Bruno Franco; Xavier Fettweis; Michel Erpicum; Samuel Nicolay;

  • 作者单位

    Institute of Geography, University of Liege, Allee du 6 Aout, 2, 4000 Liege, Belgium;

    rnInstitute of Geography, University of Liege, Allee du 6 Aout, 2, 4000 Liege, Belgium;

    rnInstitute of Geography, University of Liege, Allee du 6 Aout, 2, 4000 Liege, Belgium;

    rnInstitute of Mathematics, University of Liege, Grande Traverse, 12, 4000 Liege, Belgium;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    greenland ice sheet; AOGCMs; surface mass balance;

    机译：格陵兰冰原;AOGCM;表面质量平衡;

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