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An assessment of monsoon precipitation changes during 1901-2001

机译：1901-2001年季风降水变化的评估

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摘要

Changes of global land monsoon precipitation are assessed by using three sets of rain-gauge precipitation data for the period of 1901-2002 compiled by GPCC, CRU and Dai-dataset, respectively. The three datasets show consistent long-term changes of precipitation over the monsoon region with slightly different amplitudes. During 1901-2001, global land monsoon precipitation (GMI) exhibits multi-decadal variations, with an overall increasing trend from 1901 to 1955, followed by a decreasing trend up to 2001. The upward trends of global and Northern hemispheric land monsoon precipitation during 1901-1955 are mainly resulted from the increased precipitation over the North African, Indian and East Asian monsoon domains. For the whole period of 1901-2001, precipitation averaged over the Northern Hemisphere and global land monsoon areas both exhibit a decreasing trend although it is only statistically significant at the 5% level for the Northern Hemisphere. The robust decreasing trend of Northern hemispheric land monsoon precipitations during the twentieth century mainly comes from the downward trend of North African and eastern part of Indian monsoon precipitation and occurs mainly after the 1950s. The first leading mode of Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of precipitation annual range features a coherent change of North African, South Asian, Northeast China, southern South African, eastern Australian and western American monsoon, and a coherent change over the equatorial South African monsoon and eastern American monsoon. The corresponding principal component time series also indicate that the majority of global land monsoon precipitation has experienced an increasing tendency from 1901 to 1955 and a decreasing trend since the 1950s. Examination on the impact of station number change indicates a negligible influence on the results, especially after 1905.
机译：全球陆地季风降水的变化是通过分别由GPCC，CRU和Dai数据集汇编的三组1901-2002年雨量计降水数据进行评估的。这三个数据集显示了季风区域降水量的长期一致变化，幅度略有不同。在1901-2001年期间，全球陆地季风降水（GMI）表现出年代际变化，从1901年到1955年总体呈上升趋势，到2001年呈下降趋势。1901年全球和北半球陆地季风降水呈上升趋势。 -1955年的主要原因是北非，印度和东亚季风区域降水增加。在整个1901-2001年期间，北半球和全球陆地季风区域的平均降水量均呈下降趋势，尽管在北半球的5％水平仅具有统计意义。二十世纪，北半球陆地季风降水量的强劲下降趋势主要来自北非和印度季风降水量的下降趋势，并且主要发生在1950年代以后。降水年际经验正交函数（EOF）分析的第一个主导模式是北非，南亚，中国东北，南非南部，澳大利亚东部和西美洲季风的连贯变化，以及赤道南非的连贯变化季风和美国东部季风。相应的主成分时间序列也表明，从1901年到1955年，全球大多数陆地季风降水经历了增加的趋势，而自1950年代以来却经历了减少的趋势。对站号变更影响的检验表明，对结果的影响可以忽略不计，尤其是在1905年之后。

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