Spatiotemporal drought variability in northwestern Africa over the last nine centuries

Ramzi Touchan; Kevin J. Anchukaitis; David M. Meko; Mohamed Sabir; Said Attalah; Ali Aloui

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Spatiotemporal drought variability in northwestern Africa over the last nine centuries

机译：过去九个世纪以来非洲西北部的时空干旱变化

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Changes in precipitation patterns and the frequency and duration of drought are likely to be the feature of anthropogenic climate change that will have the most direct and most immediate consequences for human populations. The latest generation of state-of-the-art climate models project future widespread drying in the subtropics. Here, we reconstruct spatially-complete gridded Palmer drought severity index values back to A.D. 1179 over Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The reconstructions provide long-term context for northwest African hydroclima-tology, revealing large-scale regional droughts prior to the sixteenth century, as well as more heterogeneous patterns in sixteenth, eighteenth, and twentieth century. Over the most recent decades a shift toward dry conditions over the region is observed, which is consistent with general circulation model projections of greenhouse gas forced enhanced regional subtropical drought.

机译：降水模式的变化以及干旱的频率和持续时间的变化很可能是人为气候变化的特征，它将对人类造成最直接，最直接的后果。最新一代的最新气候模型预测了亚热带未来的广泛干燥。在这里，我们在摩洛哥，阿尔及利亚和突尼斯上重建了空间完整的网格化Palmer干旱严重度指数值，可追溯到公元1179年。重建工作为西北非洲的水文气候学提供了长期的背景资料，揭示了16世纪之前的大规模区域干旱，以及16、18和20世纪更为多样化的模式。在最近的几十年中，观察到该地区向干燥环境的转变，这与温室气体强迫加剧的区域亚热带干旱的一般循环模型预测一致。

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来源
《Climate dynamics》 |2011年第2期|p.237-252|共16页
作者
Ramzi Touchan; Kevin J. Anchukaitis; David M. Meko; Mohamed Sabir; Said Attalah; Ali Aloui;
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作者单位

Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, The University of Arizona,105 W. Stadium, Tucson, AZ 85721-0058, USA;

Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University,61 Route 9W. Palisades, NY 10964, USA;

Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, The University of Arizona,105 W. Stadium, Tucson, AZ 85721-0058, USA;

National School of Forest Engineering, Sale, Morocco;

Department of Agronomy, University of Ourgla,30100 Ouargla, Algeria;

Institute of Sylvo-pastoral of Tabarka,8110 Tabarka, Tunisia;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
tree-ring; drought; climate field reconstruction; mediterranean; northwestern africa;

机译：树环干旱;气候领域重建;地中海;西北非洲;

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Spatiotemporal drought variability in northwestern Africa over the last nine centuries

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