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首页> 外文期刊>Climate dynamics >Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment
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Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

机译：积极缓解气候变化：ENSEMBLES多模型实验

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摘要

We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (El), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In El twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative to 1990, with further large reductions needed beyond that to achieve the El concentrations pathway. Negative allowable anthropogenic carbon emissions at and beyond 2100 cannot be ruled out for the El scenario. There is self-consistency between the multi-model ensemble of allowable anthropogenic carbon emissions and the El scenario emissions from IMAGE 2.4.
机译：我们基于综合评估模型的详细结果，提供了多种用于模拟积极缓解情景的综合模型的结果。该实验采用了十个全球气候和地球系统模型（GCM和ESM），并且是即将举行的第五届政府间气候变化专门委员会评估的长期实验设计的先驱元素。在所有模型中都指定了大气二氧化碳浓度而不是碳排放的途径，包括五个包含交互碳循环的ESM。规定的强迫还包括较小的温室气体浓度路径，臭氧浓度，气溶胶（通过浓度或前体排放）和土地利用变化（在五个模型中）。与中高非缓解情景SRES A1B一起，研究了采用综合评估模型（IMAGE 2.4）构建的新的积极缓解情景（El），该计划具有减少化石燃料用于能源生产的目标，旨在将全球变暖稳定在2 K以下。由此得出的A1B的21世纪全球平均变暖和降水变化与先前的研究大致一致。在二十一世纪的El中，大多数模型中的全球变暖都保持在2 K以下，但是直到2065年，全球平均降水变化都高于A1B，并且每变暖度持续升高。全球温度和降水响应的扩散部分归因于气溶胶负荷的模型间变化以及与气溶胶有关的辐射强迫效应的表示。我们的研究表明，减排工作要等到减排开始数十年后，才能从温度的角度实现，并且在不同地区之间可能会有很大差异。包含整合的碳循环的模型的子集认为，陆地和海洋汇清除了当今大气中约一半的人为碳排放量，并且到2050年，人为碳排放量必须比1990年减少至少50％，并进一步大幅减少除此之外，还需要达到El浓度途径。对于El情景，不能排除2100年及以后的人为允许的负碳排放量。可允许的人为碳排放的多模型集合与IMAGE 2.4的El情景排放之间具有自洽性。

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  • 来源
    《Climate dynamics》 |2011年第10期|p.1975-2003|共29页
  • 作者

    T. C. Johns; J.-F. Royer; I. Hoschel; H. Huebener; E. Roeckner; E. Manzini; W. May; J.-L. Dufresne; O. H. Ottera; D. P. van Vuuren; D. Salas y Melia; M. A. Giorgetta; S. Denvil; S. Yang; P. G. Fogli; J. Korper; J. F. Tjiputra; E. Stehfest; C. D. Hewitt;

  • 作者单位

    Hadley Centre, Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK;

    Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Groupe d'Etude de l'Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM-GAME Meteo-France CNRS), 42 Avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse,France;

    Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universitat Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, 12165 Berlin, Germany;

    Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology, RheingaustraBe 186, 65203 Wiesbaden, Germany;

    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany;

    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany;

    Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark;

    UMR 8539 CNRS, ENS, UPMC, Ecole Polytechnique, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France;

    Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thorm0hlensgt. 47, 5006 Bergen, Norway,Uni. Bjerknes Centre, Allegt. 55, 5007 Bergen, Norway;

    Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands,Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven, The Netherlands;

    Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Groupe d'Etude de l'Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM-GAME Meteo-France CNRS), 42 Avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse,France;

    Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology, RheingaustraBe 186, 65203 Wiesbaden, Germany;

    FR 636 CNRS, UVSQ, UPMC, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France;

    Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark;

    Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy;

    Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universitat Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, 12165 Berlin, Germany;

    Department of Geophysics, University of Bergen, Allegt. 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway;

    Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven, The Netherlands;

    Hadley Centre, Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate; climate change; carbon cycle; projections; mitigation; stabilization; allowable emissions; emissions reduction; earth system model; multi-model; ENSEMBLES; CMIP5;

    机译：气候;气候变化;碳循环预测;减轻;稳定允许排放;减排;地球系统模型;多模型封装;CMIP5;

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