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首页> 外文期刊>Climate dynamics >Recurrent climate winter regimes in reconstructed and modelled 500 hPa geopotential height fields over the North Atlantic/European sector 1659-1990
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Recurrent climate winter regimes in reconstructed and modelled 500 hPa geopotential height fields over the North Atlantic/European sector 1659-1990

机译：1659-1990年北大西洋/欧洲部分500 hPa地势高度场的重建和建模中的反复冬季气候制度

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摘要

Recurrent climate winter regimes are examined from statistically reconstructed and modelled 500 hPa geopotential height fields over the North Atlantic/ European sector for the period 1659-1990. We investigate the probability density function of the state space spanned by the first two empirical orthogonal functions of combined winter data. Regimes are detected as patterns that correspond to areas of the state space with an unexpected high recurrence probability using a Monte Carlo approach. The reconstruction and the model reveal four recurrent climate regimes. They correspond to the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation and two opposite blocking patterns. Complemented by the investigation of the temporal evolution of the climate regimes this leads to the conclusion that the reconstructed and the modelled data for this geographic sector reproduce low-frequency atmospheric variability in the form of regime-like behaviour. The overall evidence for recurrent climate regimes is higher for the model than for the reconstruction. However, comparisons with independent data sources for the period 1659-1990 revealed a more realistic temporal evolution of the regimes for the reconstructed data.
机译：通过对1659-1990年期间北大西洋/欧洲地区500 hPa地理高度高度场进行统计重建和建模的方法，检查了冬季的冬季气候状况。我们研究了冬季组合数据的前两个经验正交函数所跨越的状态空间的概率密度函数。使用蒙特卡洛方法，将制度作为与状态空间区域相对应的模式进行检测，具有出乎意料的高重复概率。重建和模型揭示了四个反复出现的气候状态。它们对应于北大西洋涛动的两个阶段和两个相反的阻塞模式。通过对气候体制时间演变的研究的补充，得出的结论是，该地理部门的重建数据和模型化数据以类似体制行为的形式再现了低频大气变化。该模型的复发性气候状况的总体证据要高于重建的证据。但是，与1659年至1990年期间的独立数据源进行的比较显示，重建数据体制的时间变化更为现实。

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