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首页> 外文期刊>Climate dynamics >Potential climate change impact on wind energy resources in northern Europe: analyses using a regional climate model
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Potential climate change impact on wind energy resources in northern Europe: analyses using a regional climate model

机译：气候变化对北欧风能资源的潜在影响：使用区域气候模型进行的分析

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There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This paper presents dynamically downscaled near-surface wind fields and examines the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated wind fields from the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) with boundary conditions derived from ECHAM4/ OPYC3 AOGCM and the HadAM3H atmosphere-only GCM exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in reanalysis data products during the control period (1961-1990). The near-surface wind speeds calculated for a climate change projection period of 2071-2100 are higher than during the control run for two IPCC emission scenarios (A2, B2) for simulations conducted using boundary conditions from ECHAM4/OPYC3. The RCAO simulations conducted using boundary conditions from ECHAM4/OPYC3 indicate evidence for a small increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run and climate change projection period and for more substantial increases in energy density during the winter season. However, the differences between the RCAO simulations for the climate pro- jection period and the control run are of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Additionally, the simulations show a high degree of sensitivity to the boundary conditions, and simulations conducted using boundary conditions from HadAM3H exhibit evidence of slight declines or no change in wind speed and energy density between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100. Hence, the uncertainty of the projected wind changes is relatively high.
机译：人们非常关注气候变化对包括风能在内的可再生能源的可行性和可预测性的潜在影响。本文介绍了动态缩减的近地表风场，并研究了气候变化对北欧近地表流以及风能密度的影响。结果表明：Rossby中心的模拟风场与区域气候模型（RCM）以及ECHAM4 / OPYC3 AOGCM和仅HadAM3H大气GCM得出的边界条件相结合，表现出合理和现实的特征，如重新分析数据产品在2006年控制时期（1961-1990年）。对于使用ECHAM4 / OPYC3的边界条件进行模拟的两种IPCC排放情景（A2，B2），为气候变化预测期计算的2071-2100的近地表风速高于控制运行期间。使用ECHAM4 / OPYC3的边界条件进行的RCAO模拟表明，证据表明在控制运行和气候变化预测期之间，北欧年度风能资源略有增加，而冬季的能源密度则有较大幅度的增加。然而，气候变化时期和控制运行的RCAO模拟之间的差异与控制时期的RCAO场之间的差异和NCEP / NCAR再分析数据的差异相似。此外，仿真显示出对边界条件的高度敏感性，并且使用HadAM3H的边界条件进行的仿真显示出在1961-1990年至2071-2100年之间风速和能量密度略有下降或没有变化的迹象。因此，预计风变化的不确定性相对较高。

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