The Choco low-level jet: past present and future

Sierra Juan P.; Arias Paola A.; Duran-Quesada Ana M.; Tapias Karina A.; Vieira Sara C.; Alejandro Martinez J.

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The Choco low-level jet: past present and future

机译：Choco低级喷气机：过去的现在和未来

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The Choco low-level jet is among the main regional circulation mechanisms related to the advection of water vapor from the eastern Pacific to northwestern South America. Variations in the intensity of position of the jet core are identified as determinant for regional moisture transport and associated rainfall. This paper analyzes the annual cycle of intensity and latitudinal location of this jet according to different reanalysis and observational datasets. Moreover, we compare possible changes in the Choco jet occurred during past climates, like the little ice age (LIA), with those associated with future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCP8.5), using simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our results suggest that according to reanalysis/observational data, as well as the CMIP5 models with the best representation of the Choco jet in present climate, there is a positive correlation between the jet intensity and its latitudinal location, and such relationship is associated with the sea level pressure (SLP) difference between the eastern tropical Pacific and the northwestern South American landmass. Hence, stronger (weaker) SLP differences favor a stronger (weaker) intensity and a northward (southward) location of the Choco jet. PMIP3 simulations suggest a stronger and northward Choco jet during LIA due to a stronger SLP difference in comparison to present climate. However, under the RCP8.5 scenario, there is not robust agreement among CMIP5 models although the best models suggest a southward jet at the end of the 21st century. This suggests that the mechanisms influencing the Choco jet may play different roles during past natural climate changes with respect to anthropogenically-forced climate changes.

机译：Choco低级射流是与东太平洋东部到西北部的水蒸气平流有关的主要区域循环机制之一。喷射核心位置强度的变化被鉴定为区域水分运输和相关降雨的决定因素。本文根据不同的再分析和观察数据集分析了该喷射的强度和延迟位置的年度周期。此外，我们比较在过去的气候中发生的Choco喷气机的可能变化，如小冰（LIA），与温室气体浓度（RCP8.5）的未来情景相关的那些，使用古老气候建模互通项目阶段3 （PMIP3）和耦合型号相互熟练项目阶段5（CMIP5）。我们的结果表明，根据Reanalysics /观测数据，以及CMIP5模型，具有当前气候中的Choco Jet的最佳表示，喷射强度及其纬度位置之间存在正相关，并且这种关系与之相关海拔压力（SLP）东部热带太平洋与西北南美陆地景观区别。因此，更强（较弱）SLP差异有利于Choco Jet的更强（较弱）强度和向北（南方）位置。 PMIP3模拟在LIA期间提出了一种更强大而向北的Choco Jet，因为与当前气候相比，SLP差异更强。但是，在RCP8.5场景下，CMIP5模型中没有强大的协议，尽管最好的车型在21世纪末建议了南风。这表明影响Choco Jet的机制可能在过去的自然气候变化过程中具有不同的作用，而是关于人为强迫的气候变化。

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来源
《Climate dynamics》 |2021年第8期|2667-2692|共26页
作者
Sierra Juan P.; Arias Paola A.; Duran-Quesada Ana M.; Tapias Karina A.; Vieira Sara C.; Alejandro Martinez J.;
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作者单位

Univ Antioquia Fac Ingn Escuela Ambiental Grp Ingn & Gest Ambiental GIGA Medellin Colombia|Univ Grenoble Alpes Inst Geosci Environm IGE CNRS IRD Grenoble France;

Univ Antioquia Fac Ingn Escuela Ambiental Grp Ingn & Gest Ambiental GIGA Medellin Colombia;

Univ Costa Rica Sch Phys Atmospher Ocean & Planetary Phys Dept San Jose Costa Rica|Univ Costa Rica Sch Phys Climate Syst Observat Lab San Jose Costa Rica|Univ Costa Rica Ctr Geophys Res San Jose Costa Rica;

Univ Antioquia Fac Ingn Escuela Ambiental Grp Ingn & Gest Ambiental GIGA Medellin Colombia;

Univ Antioquia Fac Ingn Escuela Ambiental Grp Ingn & Gest Ambiental GIGA Medellin Colombia;

Univ Antioquia Fac Ingn Escuela Ambiental Medellin Colombia;

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正文语种 eng
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Choco low-level jet; Northwestern South America; Interannual variability; Little ice age; RCP8.5; Climate change;

机译：Choco低级喷气机;南美洲西北部;年龄不可变异;冰河时代;RCP8.5;气候变化;

The Choco low-level jet: past present and future

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