The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events

Bettolli M. L.; Solman S. A.; Rocha R. P.; Llopart M.; Gutierrez J. M.; Fernandez J.; Olmo M. E.; Lavin-Gullon A.; Chou S. C.; Carneiro Rodrigues D.; Coppola E.; Balmaceda Huarte R.; Barreiro M.; Blazquez J.; Doyle M.; Feijoo M.; Huth R.; Machado L.; Vianna Cuadra S.

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The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events

机译：南美洲东南部的Cordex旗舰试点研究：模拟日常极端降水事件中统计和动态缩小模型的比较研究

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The aim of this work is to present preliminary results of the statistical and dynamical simulations carried out within the framework of the Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America (FPS-SESA) endorsed by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX) program. The FPS-SESA initiative seeks to promote inter-institutional collaboration and further networking with focus on extreme rainfall events. The main scientific aim is to study multi-scale processes and interactions most conducive to extreme precipitation events through both statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques, including convection-permitting simulations. To this end, a targeted experiment was designed considering the season October 2009 to March 2010, a period with a record number of extreme precipitation events within SESA. Also, three individual extreme events within that season were chosen as case studies for analyzing specific regional processes and sensitivity to resolutions. Four dynamical and four statistical downscaling models (RCM and ESD respectively) from different institutions contributed to the experiment. In this work, an analysis of the capability of the set of the FPS-SESA downscaling methods in simulating daily precipitation during the selected warm season is presented together with an integrated assessment of multiple sources of observations and available CORDEX Regional Climate Model simulations. Comparisons among all simulations reveal that there is no single model that performs best in all aspects evaluated. The ability in reproducing the different features of daily precipitation depends on the model. However, the evaluation of the sequence of precipitation events, their intensity and timing suggests that FPS-SESA simulations based on both RCM and ESD yield promising results. Most models capture the extreme events selected, although with a considerable spread in accumulated values and the location of heavy precipitation.

机译：这项工作的目的是提出由协调区域气候镇压实验（CORDEX）计划核可的旗舰飞行员研究框架内进行的统计和动态模拟的初步结果。 FPS-SESA倡议旨在促进机构间协作和进一步的网络，重点是极端降雨事件。主要科学目标是通过统计和动态缩小技术研究多尺度过程和最有利于极端降水事件的相互作用，包括对流允许仿真。为此，考虑到2009年10月至2010年3月至2010年3月的季节，设计了一个有针对性的实验，这是一个历史记录赛中的极端降水事件数量。此外，选择了该季节内的三个个人极端事件是分析特定区域流程和对决议敏感性的案例研究。来自不同机构的四种动态和四种统计缩小模型（RCM和ESD）促成了实验。在这项工作中，在所选温暖季节在模拟日常沉淀中的FPS-SESA缩小方法集合的能力分析，并与多种观察来源的综合评估以及可用的Cindex区域气候模型模拟进行了综合评估。所有模拟中的比较都表明，在评估的所有方面都没有单一模型。再现日降水量不同特征的能力取决于模型。然而，评估降水事件的顺序，它们的强度和定时表明，基于RCM和ESD的FPS-SESA模拟产生了有希望的结果。大多数模型捕获所选择的极端事件，尽管累计值相当大的差异和重度降水的位置。

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来源
《Climate dynamics》 |2021年第6期|1589-1608|共20页
作者
Bettolli M. L.; Solman S. A.; Rocha R. P.; Llopart M.; Gutierrez J. M.; Fernandez J.; Olmo M. E.; Lavin-Gullon A.; Chou S. C.; Carneiro Rodrigues D.; Coppola E.; Balmaceda Huarte R.; Barreiro M.; Blazquez J.; Doyle M.; Feijoo M.; Huth R.; Machado L.; Vianna Cuadra S.;
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作者单位

Univ Buenos Aires DCAO FCEN UBA Fac Exact & Nat Sci Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci Buenos Aires DF Argentina|Natl Council Sci & Tech Res CONICET Buenos Aires DF Argentina|Unite Mixte Int UMI IFAECI CNRS CONICET UBA Inst Franco Argentin Estudes Climat & Ses Impacts Buenos Aires DF Argentina;

Univ Buenos Aires DCAO FCEN UBA Fac Exact & Nat Sci Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci Buenos Aires DF Argentina|Unite Mixte Int UMI IFAECI CNRS CONICET UBA Inst Franco Argentin Estudes Climat & Ses Impacts Buenos Aires DF Argentina|CONICET UBA Ctr Invest Mar & Atmosfera CIMA Buenos Aires DF Argentina;

Univ Sao Paulo Dept Ciencias Atmosfer Sao Paulo SP Brazil;

Univ Estadual Paulista Julio Mesquita Filho UNESP Bauru SP Brazil;

Univ Cantabria Inst Fis Cantabria IFCA Meteorol Grp CSIC Santander Spain;

Univ Cantabria Dept Appl Math & Comp Sci Meteorol Grp Santander Spain;

Univ Buenos Aires DCAO FCEN UBA Fac Exact & Nat Sci Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci Buenos Aires DF Argentina|Natl Council Sci & Tech Res CONICET Buenos Aires DF Argentina|Unite Mixte Int UMI IFAECI CNRS CONICET UBA Inst Franco Argentin Estudes Climat & Ses Impacts Buenos Aires DF Argentina;

Univ Cantabria Inst Fis Cantabria IFCA Meteorol Grp CSIC Santander Spain;

Ctr Previsao Tempo & Estudos Climat INPE Sao Paulo SP Brazil;

Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais INPE Sao Jose Dos Campos SP Brazil;

Abdus Salaam Int Ctr Theoret Phys Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP Trieste Italy;

Univ Buenos Aires DCAO FCEN UBA Fac Exact & Nat Sci Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci Buenos Aires DF Argentina|Natl Council Sci & Tech Res CONICET Buenos Aires DF Argentina|Unite Mixte Int UMI IFAECI CNRS CONICET UBA Inst Franco Argentin Estudes Climat & Ses Impacts Buenos Aires DF Argentina;

Univ Republica Fac Ciencias Dept Ciencias Atmosfera Montevideo Uruguay;

Unite Mixte Int UMI IFAECI CNRS CONICET UBA Inst Franco Argentin Estudes Climat & Ses Impacts Buenos Aires DF Argentina|CONICET UBA Ctr Invest Mar & Atmosfera CIMA Buenos Aires DF Argentina|Univ Nacl La Plata Fac Ciencias Astron & Geofis La Plata Argentina;

Univ Buenos Aires DCAO FCEN UBA Fac Exact & Nat Sci Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci Buenos Aires DF Argentina|Unite Mixte Int UMI IFAECI CNRS CONICET UBA Inst Franco Argentin Estudes Climat & Ses Impacts Buenos Aires DF Argentina|CONICET UBA Ctr Invest Mar & Atmosfera CIMA Buenos Aires DF Argentina;

Unite Mixte Int UMI IFAECI CNRS CONICET UBA Inst Franco Argentin Estudes Climat & Ses Impacts Buenos Aires DF Argentina|CONICET UBA Ctr Invest Mar & Atmosfera CIMA Buenos Aires DF Argentina;

Acad Sci Czech Republ Inst Atmospher Phys Dept Climatol Prague Czech Republic|Charles Univ Prague Fac Sci Dept Phys Geog & Geoecol Prague Czech Republic;

Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais INPE Sao Jose Dos Campos SP Brazil;

Brazilian Agr Res Corp EMBRAPA Brasilia DF Brazil;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
Extreme precipitation; Statistical and dynamical downscaling; Observational uncertainty; Southeastern South America;

机译：极端降水;统计和动态较低;观察不确定性;南美洲东南部;

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1. Evaluation of multiple downscaling tools for simulating extreme precipitation events over Southeastern South America: a case study approach [J] . Solman Silvina A., Bettolli M. L., Doyle M. E., Climate dynamics . 2021,第3a4期

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2. Synoptic forcing associated with extreme precipitation events over Southeastern South America as depicted by a CORDEX FPS set of convection-permitting RCMs [J] . Lavin-Gullon A., Feijoo M., Solman S., Climate dynamics . 2021,第9a10期

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3. Projection of future daily precipitation series and extreme events by using a multi-site statistical downscaling model over the great Montreal area, Quebec, Canada [J] . D. I. Jeong, A. St-Hilaire, T. B. M. J. Ouarda, Hydrology research . 2013,第1期

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6. Estimating daily air temperature across the Southeastern United States using high-resolution satellite data: a statistical modeling study [O] . Liuhua Shi, Pengfei Liu, Itai Kloog, -1

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The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study in southeastern South America: a comparative study of statistical and dynamical downscaling models in simulating daily extreme precipitation events

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