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首页> 外文期刊>Climate dynamics >A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles
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A new spatially distributed added value index for regional climate models: the EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX-CORE highest resolution ensembles

机译：区域气候模型的新空间分布附加值指数：欧洲驯料和Cordex-Core最高分辨率集合

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摘要

The added value of using regional climate models (RCMs) to downscale data from general circulation models (GCMs) has often been questioned and researched. Although several studies have used different methods to identify (and in some cases quantify) the added value, there is still a need to find a general metric that quantifies the added value of any variable. This paper builds on past studies to propose a new metric of added value in the simulation of present-day climate which measures the difference in the probability density functions (PDFs) at each grid-cell between a model and an observation source, and then compares the results of the RCM and GCM in order to spatially compute the added value index. The same method is also adapted to quantify the climate change downscaling signal in a way that is consistent with the present-day metric. These new metrics are tested on the daily precipitation output from the EURO-CORDEX and CORDEX-CORE projection ensembles and reveal an overall positive added value of RCMs, especially at the tail-end of the distribution. Higher added value is obtained in areas of complex topography and coast-lines, as well as in tropical regions. Areas with large added value in present-day climate are consistent with areas of significant climate change downscaling signal in the RCP 8.5 far future simulations, and when the analysis is repeated at a low-resolution. The use of different resolution observations shows that the added value tends to decrease when models are compared to low-resolution observation datasets.
机译：使用区域气候模型（RCMS）从一般循环模型（GCMS）的低级数据的附加值往往受到质疑和研究。虽然几项研究使用了不同的方法来识别（并且在某些情况下量化）附加值，但仍然需要查找量化任何变量的附加值的一般度量。本文建立了过去的研究，提出了在当天气候模拟中提出了新的额外值的新度量，这在模型和观察源之间的每个网格单元中测量概率密度函数（PDF）的差异，然后比较RCM和GCM的结果，以便在空间上计算附加值索引。相同的方法也适于以与本日公制一致的方式量化气候变化缩小信号。这些新的指标在欧洲驯料和CORDEX-CORE投影集合中的每日降水量上进行了测试，并揭示了RCMS的总体积极额外的值，特别是在分布的尾端。在复杂地形和海岸线以及热带地区的区域中获得较高的附加值。当今气候中增加价值的区域与RCP 8.5遥远模拟中的显着气候变化较低信号的领域一致，当以低分辨率重复分析时。使用不同的分辨率观察结果表明，当模型与低分辨率观察数据集进行比较时，增加的值趋于降低。

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  • 来源
    《Climate dynamics》 |2021年第6期|1403-1424|共22页
  • 作者

    Ciarlo James M.; Coppola Erika; Fantini Adriano; Giorgi Filippo; Gao XueJie; Tong Yao; Glazer Russell H.; Alavez Jose Abraham Torres; Sines Taleena; Pichelli Emanuela; Raffaele Francesca; Das Sushant; Bukovsky Melissa; Ashfaq Moetasim; Im Eun-Soon; Thanh Nguyen-Xuan; Teichmann Claas; Remedio Armelle; Remke Thomas; Buelow Katharina; Weber Torsten; Buntemeyer Lars; Sieck Kevin; Rechid Diana; Jacob Daniela;

  • 作者单位

    Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP Str Costiera 11 I-34135 Trieste Italy|Natl Inst Oceanog & Appl Geophys OGS Borgo Grotta Gigante 42-C I-34010 Sgonico Italy;

    Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP Str Costiera 11 I-34135 Trieste Italy;

    Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP Str Costiera 11 I-34135 Trieste Italy;

    Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP Str Costiera 11 I-34135 Trieste Italy;

    Chinese Acad Sci Climate Change Res Ctr Inst Atmospher Phys Beijing Peoples R China|Univ Chinese Acad Sci Beijing Peoples R China;

    Yingkou Meteorol Bur Yingkou Peoples R China;

    Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP Str Costiera 11 I-34135 Trieste Italy;

    Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP Str Costiera 11 I-34135 Trieste Italy;

    Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP Str Costiera 11 I-34135 Trieste Italy;

    Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP Str Costiera 11 I-34135 Trieste Italy;

    Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP Str Costiera 11 I-34135 Trieste Italy;

    Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP Str Costiera 11 I-34135 Trieste Italy;

    Natl Ctr Atmospher Res POB 3000 Boulder CO 80307 USA;

    Oak Ridge Natl Lab Oak Ridge TN USA;

    Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol Hong Kong Peoples R China;

    Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol Hong Kong Peoples R China;

    Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht Climate Serv Ctr Germany GERICS Hamburg Germany;

    Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht Climate Serv Ctr Germany GERICS Hamburg Germany;

    Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht Climate Serv Ctr Germany GERICS Hamburg Germany;

    Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht Climate Serv Ctr Germany GERICS Hamburg Germany;

    Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht Climate Serv Ctr Germany GERICS Hamburg Germany;

    Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht Climate Serv Ctr Germany GERICS Hamburg Germany;

    Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht Climate Serv Ctr Germany GERICS Hamburg Germany;

    Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht Climate Serv Ctr Germany GERICS Hamburg Germany;

    Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht Climate Serv Ctr Germany GERICS Hamburg Germany;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Regional climate model; Added value; CORDEX; EURO-CORDEX; CORDEX-CORE; Downscaling signal;

    机译：区域气候模型;附加值;CORDEX;欧洲码;CORDEX-CORE;缩小信号;

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