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Identifying the industrial sectors at risk of carbon leakage in China

机译：确定中国面临碳泄漏风险的工业部门

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摘要

China is gradually establishing an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to implement its plan to peak energy-related carbon emissions by 2030. A central debate on ETS design involves addressing the carbon leakage concern. In this study, a detailed quantitative assessment is conducted to identify the industrial sectors at risk of carbon leakage in China. The identification process is undertaken at the four-digit sector level according to the National Economic Industries Classification. Results show that the majority of emissions quotas must be allocated to several energy-intensive sectors. The criterion that focuses on maximum value at stake filters out 27 four-digit sectors, whereas the dual criterion of carbon and trade intensity highlights 17 four-digit sectors that are considered at actual risk of carbon leakage. Quantitative analysis results indicate that allocating 9% of emission quotas for free is sufficient to compensate these vulnerable sectors. The risk of exposure to carbon leakage can vary significantly due to the different levels of data disaggregation, as per the findings from the comparison of carbon intensity data obtained from four-digit sectors belonging to one two-digit sector in the Standard Industry Classification. Therefore, the importance of using high-quality disaggregated data is highlighted in this research. Official criteria for assessing the key indicators of industrial sectors must be designed to accurately evaluate the sectors at risk of carbon leakage.Policy relevanceChina is gradually establishing a nationwide Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The design of this scheme could significantly influence the economic profits and trade situation of industrial sectors. A central debate on the design of China's ETS involves how to address carbon leakage concerns; this question remains unanswered thus far. The evaluation of the extent to which the competitiveness of industrial sectors is affected by the ETS and the identification of sectors at risk of carbon leakage are certainly of practical significance to the design of an applicable range and an appropriate free quota allocation regime for China's ETS.
机译：中国正在逐步建立一个排放交易计划（ETS），以执行其计划，到2030年使与能源有关的碳排放量达到峰值。有关ETS设计的核心辩论涉及解决碳泄漏问题。在这项研究中，进行了详细的定量评估，以识别中国面临碳泄漏风险的工业部门。根据《国民经济行业分类》，识别过程在四位数的行业级别进行。结果表明，大多数排放配额必须分配给几个能源密集型部门。着眼于最大价值的标准过滤掉了27个四位数的行业，而碳和贸易强度的双重标准则突出了17个四位数的行业，这些行业被认为存在碳泄漏的实际风险。定量分析结果表明，免费分配9％的排放配额足以补偿这些脆弱的部门。根据从标准行业分类中属于一个两位数部门的四位数部门获得的碳强度数据的比较结果，由于数据分解水平不同，暴露于碳泄漏的风险可能会发生显着变化。因此，本研究强调了使用高质量分类数据的重要性。必须设计用于评估工业部门关键指标的官方标准，以准确评估存在碳泄漏风险的部门。政策相关性中国正在逐步建立一个全国性的排放交易计划（ETS）。该方案的设计可能会严重影响工业部门的经济利润和贸易状况。关于中国碳交易体系设计的核心辩论涉及如何解决碳泄漏问题。到目前为止，这个问题尚未得到解答。评估碳排放交易体系对工业部门竞争力的影响程度以及确定有碳泄漏风险的行业，对于设计适用于中国碳排放交易体系的适用范围和适当的免费配额分配制度，无疑具有现实意义。

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  • 来源
    《Climate Policy》 |2017年第4期|443-457|共15页
  • 作者

    Wang Xin; Teng Fei; Zhou Shaojie; Cai Bofeng;

  • 作者单位

    Tsinghua Univ, Inst Energy Environm & Econ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

    Tsinghua Univ, Inst Energy Environm & Econ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China|Tsinghua Univ, Res Ctr Contemporary Management, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

    Tsinghua Univ, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;

    Chinese Acad Environm Planning, Beijing 100000, Peoples R China;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    China; emission trading; leakage; market mechanisms;

    机译：中国排放交易泄漏市场机制;

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