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Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies

机译：基于努力共享的区域温室气体减排目标：研究比较

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Over 40 studies that analyse future GHG emissions allowances or reduction targets for different regions based on a wide range of effort-sharing approaches and long-term concentration stabilization levels are compared. This updates previous work undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Regional reduction targets differ significantly for each effort-sharing approach. For example, in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 1990 region, new proposals that emphasize the equity principles of responsibility, capability, and need, and those based on equal cumulative per capita emissions (carbon budgets), lead to relatively stringent emissions reduction targets. In order to reach a low concentration stabilization level of 450 ppm CO_2e, the allowances under all effort sharing approaches in OECD1990 for 2030 would be approximately half of the emissions of 2010 with a large range, roughly two-thirds in the Economies in Transition (EIT), roughly at the 2010 emissions level or slightly below in Asia, slightly above the 2010 level in the Middle East and Africa and well below the 2010 level in Latin America. For 2050, allowances in OECD1990 and EIT would be a fraction of today's emissions, approximately half of 2010 emission levels in Asia, and possibly less than half of the 2010 level in Latin America. Policy relevance The concept of equity and the stringency of future national GHG reduction targets are at the heart of the current debate on the new international climate change agreement to be adopted in 2015. Policy insights gained from an analysis of over 40 studies, which have quantitatively analysed the proposed GHG reduction targets, are presented. It is found that the outcome of effort sharing approaches is often largely determined by the way the equity principle is implemented and that the distributional impacts of such approaches can be significantly different depending on the criteria used, the stabilization level and shape of the global emissions pathway. However, the current literature only covers a small proportion of the possible allocation approaches. There should thus be an in-depth modelling comparison to ensure consistency and comparability of results and inform decision making regarding the reduction of GHG emissions.
机译：比较了40多项研究，这些研究基于广泛的努力共享方法和长期浓度稳定水平，分析了不同地区未来的温室气体排放配额或减排目标。这更新了为政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告所做的先前工作。每种工作共享方法的区域削减目标差异很大。例如，在1990年经济合作与发展组织（OECD）区域，新的提案强调了责任，能力和需求的公平原则，以及基于人均累积排放量（碳预算）的公平原则。相对严格的减排目标。为了达到450 ppm CO_2e的低浓度稳定水平，经合组织1990年在所有努力共享方法下的配额在2030年将约为2010年排放量的一半，且排放范围较大，约占转型期经济的三分之二（EIT）。 ），其排放量大致处于2010年的水平，或略低于亚洲的水平，略高于中东和非洲的2010年水平，远低于拉丁美洲的2010年水平。到2050年，经合组织1990年和企业所得税的配额将是今天排放量的一小部分，大约是亚洲2010年排放水平的一半，可能不到拉丁美洲2010年排放水平的一半。政策相关性公平概念和未来国家温室气体减排目标的严格性是当前辩论的核心内容，该辩论将于2015年通过新的国际气候变化协议。通过对40多项研究进行定量分析得出的政策见解分析了拟议的温室气体减排目标。结果发现，努力共享方法的结果通常在很大程度上取决于实施公平原则的方式，并且这些方法的分布影响可能会根据所使用的标准，稳定水平和全球排放路径的形状而有很大不同。 。但是，当前文献仅涵盖了可能分配方法的一小部分。因此，应该进行深入的模型比较，以确保结果的一致性和可比性，并为减少温室气体排放的决策提供依据。

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