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Civil society lobbying and countries' climate change policies: a matching approach

机译：民间社会游说与国家的气候变化政策：一种匹配的方法

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Does civil society lobbying affect states' policies on climate change? Does it facilitate or hamper cooperation towards 'greener' policies? Environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) and business lobbying groups alike are increasingly seeking to access states' negotiation delegations at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in order to affect or even change official delegates' policies. Previous studies have failed to control for the fact that the set of states that have granted civil society access to their delegations is unlikely to be a random sample. Moreover, the fact that a delegation's policy outputs may converge with the preferences of a civil society group cannot be taken as evidence that it was caused by civil society lobbying. A matching approach that addresses both problems is proposed, which corrects for the non-random assignment of civil society organizations to state delegations and forms quasi-experimental contrasts by sampling a set of 'most similar' cases that only differ in their treatment; i.e. civil society lobbying. This approach facilitates a causal interpretation of lobbying efforts. The results indicate that only business groups are likely to exert a causal influence on states' climate delegations. However, contrary to expectations, these groups appear to have enhanced states' efforts towards environmentally friendly policies. Policy relevance What impact can non-governmental actors have in influencing states' policies at the climate change negotiations? This question is addressed empirically using a matching approach, which corrects potential challenges in the research on interest group influence. It is shown that business groups are likely to influence states' policies at the UNFCCC - unlike green interest groups or civil society in general. In light of these findings, three policy implications are derived that might be of importance for states and non-governmental decision makers alike. Most importantly, ENGOs should refocus their efforts for exerting their influence. ENGOs could make their lobbying more effective by first identifying the states that may be more receptive to their preferences and positions.
机译：公民社会的游说是否会影响各州的气候变化政策？它是否促进或阻碍了朝着“绿色”政策的合作？环保非政府组织（ENGOs）和企业游说团体日益寻求在《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）上与各州的谈判代表团进行接触，以影响甚至改变官方代表的政策。先前的研究未能控制这样一个事实，即授予公民社会访问其代表团权限的国家集不可能是随机样本。此外，代表团的政策产出可能与民间社会团体的偏好趋于一致这一事实不能被视为它是民间社会游说造成的证据。提出了一种解决这两个问题的匹配方法，该方法纠正了民间社会组织对国家代表团的非随机分配，并通过对一组仅在处理方式上有所不同的“最相似”案例进行抽样来形成准实验对比。即民间社会游说。这种方法有助于对游说行为进行因果解释。结果表明，只有企业集团才有可能对各州的气候授权施加因果影响。但是，与预期相反，这些团体似乎加强了各州制定环境友好政策的努力。政策相关性非政府参与者在气候变化谈判中对国家政策产生何种影响？使用匹配方法以经验方式解决了这个问题，该方法纠正了利益集团影响力研究中的潜在挑战。结果表明，与绿色利益集团或整个民间社会不同，商业团体可能会影响联合国气候变化框架公约的国家政策。根据这些发现，得出了三个政策含义，它们对州和非政府决策者都可能具有重要意义。最重要的是，ENGO应该重新集中精力发挥影响力。 ENGO可以通过首先确定可能更喜欢其偏好和立场的州​​来提高游说的效率。

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