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Climate policy: hard problem, soft thinking

机译：气候政策：难题，思想温和

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Climate change is more uncertain, more global, and more long-term than most issues facing humanity. This trifecta makes a policy response that encompasses scientific correctness, public awareness, economic efficiency, and governmental effectiveness particularly difficult. Economic and psychological instincts impede rational thought. Elected officials, who cater to and foster voters’ misguided beliefs, compound the soft thinking that results. Beliefs must change before unequivocal symptoms appear and humanity experiences the climate-change equivalent of a life-altering heart attack. Sadly, it may well take dramatic loss to jolt the collective conscience toward serious action. In the long run, the only solution is a bottom-up demand leading to policies that appropriately price carbon and technological innovation, and that promote ethical shifts toward a world in which low-carbon, high-efficiency living is the norm. In the short term, however, popular will is unlikely to drive serious action on the issue. Policy makers can and must try to overcome inherent psychological barriers and create pockets of certainty that link benefits of climate policy to local, immediate payoffs. It will take high-level scientific and political leadership to redirect currently misguided market forces toward a positive outcome.
机译：与人类面临的大多数问题相比，气候变化具有更大的不确定性，更全球化和更长期的意义。这三部曲使得包括科学正确性，公众意识，经济效率和政府效力在内的政策响应特别困难。经济和心理本能阻碍理性思考。当选的官员迎合并培养了选民的错误观念，使产生的软化思想更加复杂。在明确的症状出现之前，人类必须改变信念，人类要经历的气候变化相当于改变生命的心脏病发作。可悲的是，要使集体的良心采取严肃的行动可能会蒙受巨大的损失。从长远来看，唯一的解决方案是自下而上的需求，导致对碳和技术创新进行适当定价的政策，并推动道德转向向以低碳，高效率生活为准则的世界。但是，从短期来看，民众意愿不太可能在此问题上采取严肃的行动。决策者可以而且必须设法克服固有的心理障碍，并创造确定性口袋，将气候政策的好处与当地的即时收益联系起来。需要高层的科学和政治领导才能将当前误导的市场力量重新导向积极的成果。

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