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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986–2009: adaptation to climate change?
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Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986–2009: adaptation to climate change?

机译：1986-2009年捷克共和国热门天气对死亡率的影响下降：适应气候变化？

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摘要

The study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in extended summer season in the population of the Czech Republic (Central Europe) during 1986–2009. Declining trends in the mortality impacts are found in spite of rising temperature trends. The finding remains unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account. Recent positive socioeconomic development, following the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability. The results suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that affect vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed nonstationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address associated uncertainties in studies dealing with climate change projections of temperature-related mortality.
机译：这项研究调查了1986-2009年捷克共和国（中欧）人口在夏季延长季节中与大正温度异常（高温）有关的死亡率的时间变化。尽管气温呈上升趋势，但死亡率影响的趋势却有所下降。如果考虑季节内适应热的可能混杂影响和死亡率替代影响，则该发现保持不变。 1989年中欧和东欧的共产主义崩溃之后，最近的积极社会经济发展，以及公众对与热有关的风险的更好的认识可能是脆弱性下降的主要原因。结果表明，气候变化对与热相关的死亡的影响可能相对较小，因为影响人口脆弱性的其他因素的变化是主要趋势，而不是温度趋势。重要的是，必须更好地理解观察到的温度-死亡率关系的非平稳性，以及生理和技术上适应作用及其限制的作用，并解决研究与温度相关的死亡率的气候变化预测的研究中的相关不确定性。

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