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Carbon sequestration potential of parkland agroforestry in the Sahel

机译：萨赫勒地区农田农林业的固碳潜力

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Establishing parkland agroforestry on currently treeless cropland in the West African Sahel may help mitigate climate change. To evaluate its potential, we used climatically suitable ranges for parklands for 19 climate scenarios, derived by ecological niche modeling, for estimating potential carbon stocks in parkland and treeless cropland. A biocarbon business model was used to evaluate profitability of hypothetical Terrestrial Carbon Projects (TCPs), across a range of farm sizes, farm numbers, carbon prices and benefit sharing mechanisms. Using climate analogues, we explored potential climate change trajectories for selected locations. If mature parklands covered their maximum range, carbon stocks in Sahelian productive land would be about 1,284 Tg, compared to 725 Tg in a treeless scenario. Due to slow increase rates of total system carbon by 0.4 Mg C ha−1 a−1, most TCPs at carbon prices that seem realistic today were not feasible, or required the participation of large numbers of farmers. For small farms, few TCP scenarios were feasible, and low Net Present Values for farmers made it unlikely that carbon payments would motivate many to participate in TCPs, unless additional benefits were provided. Climate analogue locations indicated an uncertain climate trajectory for the Sahel, but most scenarios projected increasing aridity and reduced suitability for parklands. The potentially severe impacts of climate change on Sahelian ecosystems and the uncertain profitability of TCPs make the Sahel highly risky for carbon investments. Given the likelihood of degrading environmental conditions, the search for appropriate adaptation strategies should take precedence over promoting mitigation activities.
机译：在西非萨赫勒地区目前无树的农田上建立公园林地农林业，可能有助于缓解气候变化。为了评估其潜力，我们使用了生态位模型推导出的适用于19种气候场景的气候适宜范围的公园，以估算公园和无树农田的潜在碳储量。使用生物碳业务模型来评估假设的陆地碳项目（TCP）在各种规模，农场数量，碳价格和利益共享机制下的盈利能力。使用气候类似物，我们探索了选定位置的潜在气候变化轨迹。如果成熟的草原覆盖其最大范围，萨赫勒产地的碳储量将约为1,284 Tg，而在无树情况下为725 Tg。由于总系统碳的缓慢增加速率为0.4 Mg C ha-1 a-1 ，所以当今看来现实的大多数以碳价计的技术合作计划都是不可行的，或者需要大量农民的参与。对于小型农场来说，很少有技术合作计划方案是可行的，而农民的净现值低，使得碳支付不太可能激发许多人参与技术合作计划，除非提供额外的利益。气候类似物的位置表明萨赫勒地区的气候轨迹不确定，但是大多数方案预测干旱会增加，对公园的适应性会降低。气候变化对萨赫勒地区生态系统的潜在严重影响以及技术合作计划不确定的盈利能力，使萨赫勒地区对碳投资具有很高的风险。考虑到环境条件恶化的可能性，寻求适当的适应策略应优先于促进缓解活动。

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  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2012年第4期|p.443-461|共19页
  • 作者

    Eike Luedeling; Henry Neufeldt;

  • 作者单位

    World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), United Nations Avenue, Gigiri, PO Box 30677-00100, Nairobi, Kenya;

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