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Improving conveyance of uncertainties in the findings of the IPCC

机译：改善IPCC调查结果不确定性的传达

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Authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) received guidance on reporting understanding, certainty and/or confidence in findings using a common language, to better communicate with decision makers. However, a review of the IPCC conducted by the InterAcademy Council (2010) found that “the guidance was not consistently followed in AR4, leading to unnecessary errors . . . the guidance was often applied to statements that are so vague they cannot be falsified. In these cases the impression was often left, quite incorrectly, that a substantive finding was being presented.” Our comprehensive and quantitative analysis of findings and associated uncertainty in the AR4 supports the IAC findings and suggests opportunities for improvement in future assessments.
机译：政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告（AR4）的作者接受了有关使用通用语言报告对调查结果的理解，确定性和/或信心的指南，以更好地与决策者沟通。但是，国际学院理事会（2010）对IPCC进行的审查发现，“ AR4中未始终遵循该指南，导致不必要的错误。 。 。该指导常用于含糊不清的陈述，不能被伪造。在这些情况下，往往会给人留下相当大的错误印象，那就是提出了实质性的发现。”我们对AR4中发现的结果和相关不确定性的全面和定量分析为IAC的发现提供了支持，并提出了改进未来评估的机会。

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