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The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

机译：气溶胶地球工程学的经济学（或缺乏经济学）

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Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth’s climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of learning and has a very simplistic representation of climate change impacts. Our analysis suggests three main conclusions. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for CO2 abatement can be an economically ineffective strategy. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on, thus far, deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace CO2 abatement in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement can fail an ethical test regarding intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, in violation of principles of intergenerational justice which demands that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.
机译：人为的温室气体排放正在改变地球的气候，并给今世后代带来巨大风险。管理这些气候风险的科学上合理，经济上可行和道德上可辩护的策略是什么？已批准的国际协议要求减少温室气体排放，以避免对气候系统的危险人为干扰。但是，最近的提议要求采用不同的方法：通过将气溶胶前体注入平流层来进行地球工程气候研究。由于（i）可能无法维持气溶胶强迫以及（ii）与气溶胶强迫相关的负面影响，已发表的经济研究通常忽略了气溶胶地球工程的风险。在这里，我们使用一个简单的气候变化综合评估模型来分析气溶胶地球工程策略在各种不确定参数上的潜在经济影响，这些不确定参数包括气候敏感性，气候变化造成的经济损失以及气溶胶地球工程强迫造成的经济损失。该模型的简单性提供了简约和透明的优点，但也对结果的解释提出了严重的警告。例如，该分析基于全局汇总模型，因此没有涉及代际成本和收益的分配。此外，该分析忽略了学习的影响，并且非常简单地表示了气候变化的影响。我们的分析提出了三个主要结论。首先，用气溶胶地球工程技术替代CO 2 减排可能在经济上无效。这一发现的一个关键是，无法维持气溶胶强迫会导致相当大且突然的气候变化。由于这种不连续的气溶胶地球工程学造成的金钱损失可以主导成本效益分析，因为气候变化的金钱损失预计会随着变化率的增加而增加。其次，气溶胶地球工程对经济最佳投资组合的相对贡献关键取决于迄今为止对气溶胶强迫造成的损害的深远不确定性估计。即使我们假设可以持续部署气溶胶强迫，但在简单的经济最佳增长模型中，气溶胶地球工程不会大量取代CO 2 减排，直到气溶胶强迫造成的损失相当低为止。第三，用气溶胶地球工程技术替代温室气体减排措施可能无法通过关于代际正义的道德测试。用气溶胶地球工程技术替代温室气体减排构成了有意识地将风险转移给子孙后代，这违反了代际正义的原则，该原则要求当代人不应为自己的后代创造利益，以换取后代的负担。

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