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Hydrologic effects of climate change in the Yukon River Basin

机译：育空河流域气候变化的水文影响

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A monthly water balance (WB) model was developed for the Yukon River Basin (YRB). The WB model was calibrated using mean monthly values of precipitation and temperature derived from the Precipitation-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data set and by comparing estimated mean monthly runoff with runoff measured at Pilot Station, Alaska. The calibration procedure used the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search. Potential hydrologic effects of climate change were assessed for the YRB by imposing changes in precipitation and temperature derived from selected Inter-governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) climate simulations. Scenarios from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations were used to provide a range of potential changes. Results from the scenarios indicate an increase in annual runoff in the twenty-first century for the YRB with simulated increases in precipitation having the greatest effect on increases in runoff. Simulated increases in temperature were found to alter the timing of snow accumulation and melt.
机译：为育空河流域（YRB）开发了每月水量平衡（WB）模型。 WB模型使用从独立斜坡降水高程回归模型（PRISM）数据集得出的降水和温度的月度平均值进行校准，并通过将估计的月平均径流与阿拉斯加试点站测得的径流进行比较。校准过程使用“混洗的复杂演化”全局搜索。通过强加从选定的政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）气候模拟得出的降水和温度变化，评估了黄河流域对气候变化的潜在水文影响。来自五个通用循环模型（GCM）模拟的场景用于提供一系列潜在变化。这些情景的结果表明，黄河流域在二十世纪的年径流量增加，模拟的降水增加对径流量的增加影响最大。发现温度的模拟变化会改变积雪和融雪的时间。

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