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Estimated impacts of climate warming on California’s high-elevation hydropower

机译：气候变暖对加州高海拔水电的估计影响

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California’s hydropower system is composed of high and low elevation power plants. There are more than 150 high-elevation power plants, at elevations above 1,000 feet (300 m). Most have modest reservoir storage capacities, but supply roughly 74% of California’s in-state hydropower. The expected shift of runoff peak from spring to winter due to climate warming, resulting in snowpack reduction and increased snowmelt, might have important effects on power generation and revenues in California. The large storage capacities at low-elevation power plants provide flexibility to operations of these units under climate warming. However, with climate warming, the adaptability of the high-elevation hydropower system is in question as this system was designed to take advantage of snowpack, a natural reservoir. With so many high-elevation hydropower plants in California, estimation of climate warming effects by conventional simulation or optimization methods would be tedious and expensive. An Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) was developed to facilitate practical climate change and other low-resolution system-wide hydropower studies, based on the historical generation data of 137 high-elevation hydropower plants for which the data were complete for 14 years. Employing recent historical hourly energy prices, the model was used to explore energy generation in California for three climate warming scenarios (dry warming, wet warming, and warming-only) over 14 years, representing a range of hydrologic conditions. The system is sensitive to the quantity and timing of inflows. While dry warming and warming-only climate changes reduce average hydropower revenues, wet warming could increase revenue. Re-operation of available storage and generation capacities help compensate for snowpack losses to some extent. Storage capacity expansion and to a lesser extent generation capacity expansion both increase revenues, although such expansions might not be cost-effective.
机译：加州的水力发电系统由高海拔和低海拔发电厂组成。海拔超过1000英尺（300 m）的发电厂有150多个。大多数水库的蓄水能力不大，但供应的州内水电约占74％。由于气候变暖，径流高峰从春季到冬季的预期转变，导致积雪减少和融雪增加，可能会对加利福尼亚州的发电量和收入产生重要影响。低海拔发电厂的大存储容量为这些机组在气候变暖下的运行提供了灵活性。然而，随着气候变暖，高海拔水电系统的适应性受到质疑，因为该系统旨在利用天然蓄水池积雪的优势。由于加利福尼亚有这么多的高海拔水电站，通过传统的模拟或优化方法估算气候变暖的影响将是乏味且昂贵的。基于137个高海拔水电站的历史发电数据，开发了基于能源的水电优化模型（EBHOM），以促进实际的气候变化和其他低分辨率全系统水电研究，这些数据已完成14年。利用最近的历史每小时小时能源价格，该模型被用于探索14年中代表各种水文条件的三种气候变暖情景（干变暖，湿变暖和仅变暖）的加利福尼亚能源产生。该系统对流入的数量和时间敏感。虽然干热和仅变暖的气候变化会减少平均水电收入，但湿热会增加收入。重新使用可用存储和发电容量有助于在一定程度上补偿积雪损失。存储容量扩展和发电容量扩展在较小程度上都增加了收入，尽管这种扩展可能并不划算。

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