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Impact of recent climate change on the hydrology of coastal Mediterranean rivers in Southern France

机译：最近的气候变化对法国南部地中海沿岸河流水文的影响

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摘要

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the regional impact of recent climate change on the water resources in southern France. We produced spatial reconstructions of the monthly evolutions of temperature, precipitation and water discharge in 15 watersheds of six coastal river basins and examined the major changes based on trend analysis for the last 40 years. In this part of the Mediterranean, the general warming trend was strongly enhanced by changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns, characterized by a northward extension of the subtropical high pressure domain during spring and summer. During these seasons, monthly warming rates could achieve almost twice the mean annual warming rates. Although annual precipitation did not follow clear trends, water discharge significantly decreased in one third of the watersheds and accounted for an estimated 20% reduction of the water resources in this region. This concerns both the highest and lowest watersheds. In the former, the reduction is likely the result of a temperature induced switch of snowfall to rainfall at high altitudes. In the latter, the reduction of discharge seems to come from lower groundwater levels, which may be related to the temperature increase too, but also have other origins. The recent climatic evolution is consistent with most modelling simulations for the future, indicating that the reduction of the water resources will hold on, probably still enhanced by decreases in precipitation.
机译：本文的目的是分析近期气候变化对法国南部水资源的区域影响。我们对六个沿海流域的15个流域的温度，降水和排水量的月度演变进行了空间重构，并基于最近40年的趋势分析研究了主要变化。在地中海的这一部分，大气环流模式的变化大大增强了总体变暖趋势，其特征是在春季和夏季，亚热带高压域向北延伸。在这些季节中，每月的升温速率几乎可以达到平均年度升温速率的两倍。尽管年降水量没有遵循明显的趋势，但流域三分之一的水排放量明显减少，估计占该地区水资源的20％。这涉及最高和最低分水岭。在前者中，这种降低可能是由于温度引起的降雪转换成高海拔地区的降雨的结果。在后者中，排放量的减少似乎来自地下水位较低，这也可能与温度升高有关，但也有其他原因。最近的气候演变与未来的大多数模拟模拟是一致的，这表明水资源的减少将持续下去，可能仍会因降水减少而加剧。

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