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Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections

机译：欧洲气候中的未来极端事件：探索区域气候模型预测

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This paper presents an overview of changes in the extreme events that are most likely to affect Europe in forthcoming decades. A variety of diagnostic methods are used to determine how heat waves, heavy precipitation, drought, wind storms, and storm surges change between present (1961–90) and future (2071–2100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves – Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first century, countries in central Europe will experience the same number of hot days as are currently experienced in southern Europe. The intensity of extreme temperatures increases more rapidly than the intensity of more moderate temperatures over the continental interior due to increases in temperature variability. Precipitation – Heavy winter precipitation increases in central and northern Europe and decreases in the south; heavy summer precipitation increases in north-eastern Europe and decreases in the south. Mediterranean droughts start earlier in the year and last longer. Winter storms – Extreme wind speeds increase between 45°N and 55°N, except over and south of the Alps, and become more north-westerly than cuurently. These changes are associated with reductions in mean sea-level pressure, leading to more North Sea storms and a corresponding increase in storm surges along coastal regions of Holland, Germany and Denmark, in particular. These results are found to depend to different degrees on model formulation. While the responses of heat waves are robust to model formulation, the magnitudes of changes in precipitation and wind speed are sensitive to the choice of regional model, and the detailed patterns of these changes are sensitive to the choice of the driving global model. In the case of precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal variability and variability between different emissions scenarios.
机译：本文概述了在未来几十年中最有可能影响欧洲的极端事件的变化。多种诊断方法可用来确定热浪，重降水，干旱，风暴和风暴潮在当前（1961–90）和未来（2071–2100）气候之间的变化，这是基于由PRUDENCE项目。主要结果总结如下。热浪–区域表面变暖导致欧洲热浪的频率，强度和持续时间增加。到二十世纪末，中欧国家将经历与南欧目前相同的炎热天气。由于温度变异性的增加，极端温度的强度比大陆内部的中等温度的强度增长更快。降水–中欧和北欧冬季降水增加，而南部则减少。欧洲东北部夏季夏季降水增加，而南部则减少。地中海干旱始于今年年初，持续时间更长。冬季风暴–除阿尔卑斯山的南部和南部以外，极端风速在45°N至55°N之间增加，并且比往常偏北。这些变化与平均海平面压力的减少有关，导致更多的北海风暴，尤其是沿荷兰，德国和丹麦的沿海地区，风暴潮相应增加。发现这些结果在不同程度上取决于模型的制定。尽管热浪的响应对模型的建立是有力的，但降水量和风速的变化幅度对区域模型的选择敏感，而这些变化的详细模式对驱动全局模型的选择敏感。在降水的情况下，模型之间的差异可能会超过内部可变性，也可能会超出不同排放情景之间的可变性。

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