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Climate Warming and Water Management Adaptation for California

机译：加利福尼亚的气候变暖和水管理适应

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摘要

The ability of California's water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demographic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate scenario are examined with population and land use estimates for the year 2100 using a statewide economic-engineering optimization model of water supply management. Methodologically, the results of this analysis indicate that for long-term climate change studies of complex systems, there is considerable value in including other major changes expected during a long-term time-frame (such as population changes), allowing the system to adapt to changes in conditions (a common feature of human societies), and representing the system in sufficient hydrologic and operational detail and breadth to allow significant adaptation. While the policy results of this study are preliminary, they point to a considerable engineering and economic ability of complex, diverse, and inter-tied systems to adapt to significant changes in climate and population. More specifically, California's water supply system appears physically capable of adapting to significant changes in climate and population, albeit at a significant cost. Such adaptation would entail large changes in the operation of California's large groundwater storage capacity, significant transfers of water among water users, and some adoption of new technologies.
机译：研究了加利福尼亚供水系统适应长期气候和人口变化的能力。使用全州范围内的供水工程经济工程优化模型，对2100年的人口变暖和历史气候情景进行了人口和土地利用估算。从方法上讲，该分析的结果表明，对于复杂系统的长期气候变化研究，将长期范围内预期的其他主要变化（例如人口变化）包括在内，具有相当大的价值，使系统能够适应适应条件的变化（人类社会的共同特征），并以足够的水文和操作细节及广度来表示系统，以进行重大调整。尽管这项研究的政策结果是初步的，但它们指出了复杂，多样且相互关联的系统具有相当大的工程和经济能力，以适应气候和人口的重大变化。更具体地说，尽管成本高昂，但加州的供水系统似乎在物理上能够适应气候和人口的重大变化。这种适应将导致加利福尼亚州巨大的地下水存储能力的运行发生重大变化，用水者之间的水量会大量转移，并且会采用一些新技术。

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  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2006年第4期|361-387|共27页
  • 作者

    Stacy K. Tanaka; Tingju Zhu; Jay R. Lund; Richard E. Howitt; Marion W. Jenkins; Manuel A. Pulido; Mélanie Tauber; Randall S. Ritzema; Inês C. Ferreira;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of California;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of California;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of California;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of California;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of California;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of California;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of California;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of California;

    Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of California;

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