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Century-Scale Change in Water Availability: CO2-Quadrupling Experiment

机译：可用水的世纪尺度变化：CO2 -四倍实验

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It has been suggested that, unless a major effort is made, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide may rise above four times the pre-industrial level in a few centuries. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model to explore the response of the global water cycle to such a large increase in carbon dioxide, focusing on river discharge and soil moisture. Our results suggest that water is going to be more plentiful in those regions of the world that are already `water-rich'. However, water stresses will increase significantly in regions and seasons that are already relatively dry. This could pose a very challenging problem for water-resource management around the world. For soil moisture, our results indicate reductions during much of the year in many semi-arid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. In some of these regions, soil moisture values are reduced by almost a factor of two during the dry season. The drying in semi-arid regions is likely to induce the outward expansion of deserts to the surrounding regions. Over extensive regions of both the Eurasian and North American continents in high and middle latitudes, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter, in contrast to the situation in semi-arid regions. For river discharge, our results indicate an average increase of ∼ 15% during the next few centuries. The discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob' increase by much larger fractions. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra also increase considerably. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller.
机译：已经提出，除非作出重大努力，否则在几个世纪内，大气中的二氧化碳浓度可能会上升到工业化前水平的四倍以上。在这里，我们使用大气-海洋-陆地耦合模型来研究全球水循环对二氧化碳大量增加的响应，重点是河流排放和土壤水分。我们的结果表明，在世界上那些已经“富水”的地区，水将变得更加丰富。但是，在已经相对干燥的地区和季节，水分胁迫将大大增加。对于世界范围的水资源管理来说，这可能是一个非常具有挑战性的问题。对于土壤水分，我们的结果表明，在世界上许多半干旱地区，例如北美的西南地区，中国的东北地区，欧洲的地中海沿岸以及澳大利亚和美国的草原，一年中的大部分时间都在减少。非洲。在这些地区中的某些地区，旱季土壤湿度值几乎降低了两倍。半干旱地区的干旱很可能导致沙漠向外扩展到周围地区。与半干旱地区的情况相反，在高纬度和中纬度地区的欧亚大陆和北美大陆的广大地区，夏季的土壤水分减少，而冬季则增加。对于河流流量，我们的结果表明在接下来的几个世纪中，平均流量增加了约15％。麦肯奇河和奥伯河等北极河流的排放量增加了很多。在热带地区，亚马逊河和恒河-布拉马普特拉的排放量也大大增加。但是，其他热带河流和许多中纬河流的径流变化百分比较小。

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  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2004年第2期|59-76|共18页
  • 作者

    S. Manabe; R. T. Wetherald; P. C. D. Milly; T. L. Delworth; R. J. Stouffer;

  • 作者单位

    Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Princeton University;

    Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University;

    U.S. Geological Survey GFDL/NOAA;

    Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University;

    Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University;

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