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Variations and Trends in Turkish Seasonal Heating and Cooling Degree-Days

机译：土耳其季节性供热和制冷度-天数的变化和趋势

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摘要

The potential effect of climate change on energy demand is important especially for the developing and non-oil-producing countries. Cooling and heating degree-day (CDD and HDD) concepts are among the most significant meteorological variables related to residential energy consumption. This paper presents the spatial and temporal characteristics of Turkish seasonal CDD and HDD in the context of climate change. CDD and HDD are defined objectively by truncation of the temperature series at any constant base temperature level. This leads to surpluses and deficits as deviations. The surpluses are instances for cooling and the deficits for heating. Depending on temperature fluctuations, the degree-day statistics at any location show local and seasonal variations. In this study, regional variations of seasonal HDD and CDD are mapped for Turkey and their relations to local topography and climatic features are examined with conclusive interpretations. The sequential version of Mann–Kendall rank statisticis applied to demonstrate any existence of possible non-linear trends in accumulated HDD and CDD over the seasons. Spatially coherent and statistically significant trends of HDD and CDD appear in some regions of Turkey. In general, the sign of the trends is inconsistent with General Circulation Models (GCM) predictions.
机译：气候变化对能源需求的潜在影响尤其重要，对于发展中国家和非石油生产国而言。每天的制冷和采暖度（CDD和HDD）概念是与住宅能耗有关的最重要的气象变量。本文介绍了在气候变化的背景下土耳其季节性CDD和HDD的时空特征。 CDD和HDD通过在任何恒定基准温度水平下截断温度序列来客观地定义。这导致盈余和赤字作为偏差。盈余是供冷的实例，供暖是供冷的实例。根据温度波动，在任何位置的度数日统计信息都会显示本地和季节性变化。在这项研究中，针对土耳其绘制了季节性HDD和CDD的区域变化，并通过结论性解释研究了它们与当地地形和气候特征的关系。曼恩·肯德尔等级统计的顺序版本适用于证明各个季节累积的HDD和CDD可能存在非线性趋势。 HDD和CDD在空间上连贯且具有统计意义的趋势出现在土耳其的某些地区。通常，趋势的迹象与通用流通模型（GCM）的预测不一致。

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  • 来源
    《Climatic Change》 |2001年第2期|209-223|共15页
  • 作者

    Mikdat Kadioğlu; Zekai Şen; Latif Gültekin;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Meteorology Istanbul Technical University;

    Department of Meteorology Istanbul Technical University;

    Diyarbakir Meteorology Station Turkish State Meteorological Works;

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