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Climate change impacts on the Beaufort shelf landfast ice

机译：气候变化对博福特陆架冰的影响

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We use a one-dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model and modified meteorological data from the Tuktoyaktuk station to simulate the thickness and duration of the landfast ice under possible climate change scenarios. An increase of 4℃ in surface air temperature and 100% in snow accumulation rate results in a 39-cm reduction in yearly maximum ice thickness and a 21 -day reduction in ice duration. However, owing to large natural variability, even such a large (22%) change would require roughly 8 years to observe and confirm. Standard errors of ±17 cm for maximum ice thickness and ±9 days for ice duration were estimated by comparing the ice thickness simulated using meteorological forcing from 3 coastal stations. With respect to interannual variation in maximum ice thickness, only 2 of 6 pairs of coastal stations had correlation coefficients significant at the 95% confidence level. Low correlations are a consequence of varying snow accumulation amongst stations. This result emphasizes the urgent need for marine-based observations of solid precipitation for understanding change in the thickness of landfast sea ice.
机译：我们使用一维热力学海冰模型和来自Tuktoyaktuk站的修改后的气象数据来模拟可能的气候变化情景下陆冰的厚度和持续时间。地表气温每升高4℃，积雪率提高100％，每年最大冰厚度将减少39厘米，冰持续时间将减少21天。但是，由于较大的自然可变性，即使如此大的变化（22％）也需要大约8年的时间来观察和确认。通过比较使用3个沿海站点的气象强迫模拟的冰厚度，可以估算出最大冰厚度为±17 cm，冰持续时间为±9天的标准误差。关于最大冰厚度的年际变化，在6对沿海站中只有2个的相关系数在95％的置信水平上很显着。相关性低是站之间积雪变化的结果。该结果强调了迫切需要对固体降水进行海洋观测，以了解陆上海冰厚度的变化。

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