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A probabilistic methodology to assess the reliability of deteriorating structural elements

机译：评估恶化的结构要素可靠性的概率方法

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A probabilistic procedure for the analysis of current and future reliability of existing structural systems is proposed: they are assumed subject to deterioration over time, due to the exposure to an aggressive environment as well as to the effects of wear during ordinary service, of improper use and maintenance and of extreme accidental events. The assumption is made that the structural elements deteriorate because of the effects of two different sets of phenomena: the first, denoted by ageing, manifest their effects on a substantially continuous basis during the structural lifetime; the others, denoted by shocks, have effects that superimpose only occasionally to the first ones. The evolution of the structural damage due to deterioration through ageing and shocks is derived as the solution of an Ito stochastic differential equation, and then used to assess the time-dependent reliability of the deteriorating structural element. In this paper the probabilistic procedure is presented and illustrated with reference to a realistic example f a reinforced concrete shear wall located in a nuclear power plant and subject to deterioration due to expansive aggregate reactions and to exposure to earthquake loading.
机译：提出了一种概率方法来分析现有结构系统的当前和未来可靠性：假定它们会随着时间的流逝而恶化，这是由于暴露于侵蚀性环境以及普通服务期间磨损，使用不当造成的影响维修和极端意外事件。假定结构要素由于两种不同现象的影响而变质：第一，以老化表示，在结构寿命期间基本上连续地表现出它们的影响；第二，以时效表示。其他的以冲击表示，其效果仅偶尔叠加在第一个效果上。由Ito随机微分方程的解导出了由于老化和冲击而导致的结构损坏的演变，然后用于评估劣化的结构元件随时间变化的可靠性。在本文中，将以一个实际示例为例，介绍和说明概率过程，该示例位于核电厂中的钢筋混凝土剪力墙，并且由于集料膨胀反应和暴露于地震荷载而恶化。

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