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Analysis and model-based predictions of solar PV and battery adoption in Germany: an agent-based approach

机译：基于分析和模型预测的德国太阳能光伏和电池采用：基于代理的方法

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In order to tackle energy challenges faced in Germany, a Feed-in Tariff program was created in 2004 to aid the adoption of solar Photo Voltaic (PV) systems where owners of such systems are paid a certain amount for each unit of electricity generated. Solar PV electricity generation is limited due to its intermittency but this can be managed using batteries. In this paper, we study the adoption of PV and battery (PV-battery) systems in Germany, and evaluate policies that could improve the adoption of these systems and their impact on the electric grid. To do this, we create an agent-based model that is simulated to estimate the impacts of different policies; this model is informed by an online survey with respondents from Germany. Simulating adoption over a period of 10 years, the results show that increasing electricity prices could result in improved PV-battery adoption in Germany better than reducing PV-battery system prices could. In addition, given the high level of affinity of people towards PV systems in Germany, disconnection from the grid would be a viable option within the next 10 years.
机译：为了应对德国面临的能源挑战，2004年制定了上网电价计划，以帮助采用太阳能光伏（PV）系统，该系统的所有者为每单位发电量支付一定的费用。由于其间歇性，太阳能光伏发电受到限制，但是可以使用电池进行管理。在本文中，我们研究了德国光伏和电池（PV-battery）系统的采用情况，并评估了可以改善这些系统的采用及其对电网的影响的政策。为此，我们创建了一个基于代理的模型，该模型经过仿真以估计不同策略的影响。该模型是通过对来自德国的受访者进行的在线调查得出的。通过模拟十年的采用情况，结果表明，提高电价可能会比降低光伏电池系统的价格更好地提高德国的光伏电池采用率。此外，考虑到人们对德国光伏系统的高度亲和力，在未来10年内与电网断开连接将是可行的选择。

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