A model for evacuation risk assessment with consideration of pre- and post-disaster factors

Xiang Chen; Mei-Po Kwan; Qiang Li; Jin Chen

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A model for evacuation risk assessment with consideration of pre- and post-disaster factors

机译：考虑灾前和灾后因素的疏散风险评估模型

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In urban areas, the occurrence of disasters can cause extensive damage to human society. For this reason, evacuation, regarded as a critical course of action to relocate people and property, helps to alleviate loss of life and property to a great extent. Risk associated with evacuation is an abstract concept that cannot be easily conceptualized. This paper develops a model for assessing and visualizing the risks associated with the evacuation process in response to potential catastrophes. Understanding of evacuation risk, the potential for losing transport connections and the difficulty of transferring rescue resources, was previously limited by considering pre-disaster factors only. This study mitigates such limitation by extending previous research to include the contingent post-disaster factors that have received scant attention to date. Two contingent post-disaster factors: the spatial impact of the disaster and the potential for traffic congestion caused by the evacuee routing behaviors, are discussed in detail and integrated into the model along with other pre-disaster factors. A case study on the transportation network of Beijing, China is used to demonstrate the value of the model. This paper asserts that the notion of evacuation risk is not a static evaluation of such factors as road vulnerability; rather it involves a dynamic process where contingent factors associated with disastrous events play a role. This model can help city emergency planners to identify urban infrastructures that may hinder an efficient evacuation process because of their deficient configuration.

机译：在城市地区，灾难的发生可能对人类社会造成广泛破坏。因此，疏散被视为重新安置人员和财产的重要行动，在很大程度上有助于减轻生命和财产损失。与疏散相关的风险是一个抽象的概念，不能轻易地将其概念化。本文开发了一个模型，用于评估和可视化与疏散过程相关的风险，以应对潜在的灾难。过去仅通过考虑灾前因素来限制疏散风险，失去运输联系的可能性以及转移救援资源的困难。这项研究通过扩展先前的研究以包括迄今为止很少引起注意的或有的灾后因素，从而减轻了这种局限性。灾难后的两个偶然因素：灾难的空间影响和撤离人员的举动行为造成的交通拥堵的可能性，将被详细讨论，并与其他灾难前因素一起整合到模型中。以中国北京的交通网络为例，验证了该模型的价值。本文认为，疏散风险并不是对道路脆弱性等因素的静态评估。而是涉及一个动态过程，其中与灾难性事件相关的或有因素在其中起作用。该模型可以帮助城市应急计划人员确定由于配置不足而可能阻碍有效疏散过程的城市基础设施。

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《Computers，environment and urban systems》 |2012年第3期|p.207-217|共11页
作者
Xiang Chen; Mei-Po Kwan; Qiang Li; Jin Chen;
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作者单位

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China,Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, OH 43210, USA;

Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, OH 43210, USA;

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
Evacuation risk; Critical cluster model(CCM); Pre-disaster factors; Post-disaster factors; Spatial impact; Routing;

机译：疏散风险;关键集群模型（CCM）;灾前因素;灾后因素;空间影响;路由;

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A model for evacuation risk assessment with consideration of pre- and post-disaster factors

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