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Modeling different urban change trajectories and their trade-offs with food production in Jiangsu Province, China

机译：中国江苏省粮食生产建模不同的城市改变轨迹及其权衡

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摘要

Urban areas in China have expanded rapidly in recent decades, which mainly resulted in the conversion of fertile cropland. As the growth of urban areas is likely to continue in the next decades, there is a need for detailed assessments of urbanization impacts on food production. However, most land use models cannot simulate different types of urban change trajectories, such as expansion and densification, which constrains their capacity to inform such assessments with sufficient detail on the patterns of urbanization. In this paper, we present a land use model that represents multiple types of settlements, which allows to simulate multiple different urban change trajectories. We applied this model to Jiangsu Province, China, and assess the impact of projected urban development between 2015 and 2030 on cropland area and crop production. Results show that population growth is accommodated by different urban change trajectories, depending on the absence or presence of land use policies to maintain food security. In the absence of policies, population growth mainly leads to urban expansion, yielding losses in both cropland area and crop production. Implementing strict cropland protection policies leads to more urban densification and all population can be accommodated without a net loss of cropland. Yet, crop production decreases in this scenario as the most productive croplands are still converted and compensated by less productive areas. Protecting crop production instead leads to a small loss in cropland area combined with cropland intensification and different types of urban change, but maintains the total crop production. These results show the relevance of more nuanced representation of urban development in land use models in order to inform land use policies.
机译：近几十年来，中国的城市地区已经迅速扩大，主要导致肥沃的农作物转换。随着城市地区的增长可能会在未来几十年中持续下来，需要对粮食生产的城市化影响进行详细评估。然而，大多数土地利用模型无法模拟不同类型的城市改变轨迹，例如扩展和致密化，这会让其能够在城市化模式上充分详细地提供信息。在本文中，我们提供了一个代表多种类型的定居点的土地使用模型，其允许模拟多个不同的城市改变轨迹。我们向江苏省，中国申请了这一型号，并评估了2015年和2030年在农田地区和作物生产之间预计城市发展的影响。结果表明，不同的城市改变轨迹，人口增长是可容纳的，这取决于土地利用政策的缺失或存在，以维持粮食安全。在没有政策的情况下，人口增长主要导致城市扩张，在农田地区和作物生产中产生损失。实施严格的农田保护政策会导致更多的城市致密化，所有人口都可以容纳，而不会净损失。然而，农作物产量在这种情况下减少，因为最富有成效的农作物仍被较少的生产区域转换和补偿。保护作物生产，而是导致农田地区的少量损失，相结合农田集约化和不同类型的城市变革，但保持了总作物生产。这些结果表明，在土地利用模型中城市发展更细致的表现意见，以便为土地使用政策提供信息。

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  • 来源
    《Computers，environment and urban systems》 |2019年第9期|101355.1-101355.10|共10页
  • 作者

    Wang Yuan; van Vliet Jasper; Pu Lijie; Verburg Peter H.;

  • 作者单位

    Nanjing Univ Sch Geog & Oceanog Sci Xianlin Rd 163 Nanjing 210023 Jiangsu Peoples R China|Vrije Univ Amsterdam Inst Environm Studies Boelelaan 1085 NL-1081 HV Amsterdam Netherlands|Minist Nat Resources Key Lab Coastal Zone Exploitat & Protect Xianlin Rd 163 Nanjing 210023 Jiangsu Peoples R China;

    Vrije Univ Amsterdam Inst Environm Studies Boelelaan 1085 NL-1081 HV Amsterdam Netherlands;

    Nanjing Univ Sch Geog & Oceanog Sci Xianlin Rd 163 Nanjing 210023 Jiangsu Peoples R China|Minist Nat Resources Key Lab Coastal Zone Exploitat & Protect Xianlin Rd 163 Nanjing 210023 Jiangsu Peoples R China;

    Vrije Univ Amsterdam Inst Environm Studies Boelelaan 1085 NL-1081 HV Amsterdam Netherlands|Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL Zurcherstr 111 CH-8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Land use change; Urban growth; Land use model; Food security; Cropland protection; Land use policy;

    机译：土地利用变化;城市增长;土地利用模式;粮食安全;农田保护;土地利用政策;

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