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Estimation of Project Completion Time and Factors Analysis for Concurrent Engineering Project Management: A Simulation Approach

机译：并行工程项目管理的项目完成时间估算和因素分析：一种仿真方法

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摘要

In concurrent engineering projects, tasks are usually interdependent among each other that require much iteration before completion where the critical path method/program evaluation and review technique (CPM/PERT) may not be applicable to help estimate the project duration. In addition, carrying out a large-scaled project in a dynamic environment has to deal with various factors at the same time. When estimating the project completion time, previous research often focused on one subject of interest and assumed the other factors causing little effect on the overall project duration. The objective of this article is to develop a research framework to help estimate the project completion time and analyze the major factors that affect the estimation for complex concurrent engineering projects. The framework consists of three major components: (1) data collection, where the needed data for simulation are prepared including project task structure, task relations, and quantified team member characteristics; (2) simulation, where tasks are dynamically assigned to the appropriate members/engineers according to each member's knowledge level of the task, teamwork capability, work schedule availability, and learning curve improvement; and (3) data analysis, where significant factors to the project completion time are studied by the ANOVA analysis based on the simulation results. The effectiveness of our framework and the simulation model is demonstrated by an illustrative example.
机译：在并发的工程项目中，任务之间通常是相互依赖的，在完成之前需要大量迭代，而关键路径方法/程序评估和检查技术（CPM / PERT）可能不适用于帮助估计项目工期。另外，在动态环境中执行大型项目必须同时处理各种因素。在估算项目完成时间时，以前的研究通常集中在一个感兴趣的主题上，并假设其他因素对整个项目的持续时间影响很小。本文的目的是开发一个研究框架，以帮助估计项目完成时间并分析影响复杂并发工程项目估计的主要因素。该框架包括三个主要部分：（1）数据收集，其中准备了用于仿真的所需数据，包括项目任务结构，任务关系和量化的团队成员特征； （2）模拟，根据每个成员的任务知识水平，团队合作能力，工作时间表可用性和学习曲线改进，将任务动态分配给适当的成员/工程师； （3）数据分析，其中基于模拟结果的ANOVA分析研究了影响项目完成时间的重要因素。我们的框架和仿真模型的有效性通过一个说明性示例得以证明。

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