GERMANY

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GERMANY

机译：德国

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The September elections saw Angela Merkel's preferred centre-right coalition between the Christian Democratic Union and the pro-business Free Democratic Party emerge victorious. Ms. Merkel intends to push through income and corporate tax cuts that were blocked by the previous grand coalition with the Social Democrat Party, in a bid to stimulate the economy and build upon the tentative recovery achieved in Q2. This is expected to contribute to spiralling levels of public debt, however, and our panellists estimate the deficit will reach €94bn this year and €134bn in 2010. Added to this, constitutional caps on debt limit the government's ability to institute further tax cuts going forward, which could prove problematic in the face of Germany's aging workforce.

机译：在9月份的选举中，安格拉·默克尔（Angela Merkel）在基督教民主联盟和亲商业自由民主党之间的偏爱中右翼联盟取得了胜利。默克尔女士打算通过先前与社会民主党的大联盟阻止的收入和公司减税措施，以刺激经济并在第二季度取得初步恢复的基础上进行。预计这将加剧公共债务水平的上升，但我们的小组成员估计，赤字今年将达到940亿欧元，2010年将达到1,340亿欧元。此外，宪法规定的债务上限限制了政府实施进一步减税措施的能力。面对德国老龄化的劳动力，这可能会带来问题。

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《Consensus Forecasts》 |2009年第10期|8-9|共2页
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