SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INTHE QUARTERLY CONSENSUS

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SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INTHE QUARTERLY CONSENSUS

机译：季度共识发生重大变化

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This month, we explore Significant Changes in Quarterly Forecast Trends for GDP among some of the G-7 economies. We have taken this month's quarterly projections (available in full on pages 3,28 and 29) and contrasted them with those published in March and June 2009 (see charts, below). As these charts illustrate, the current downturn likely bottomed in the first or second quarter of this year. Moreover, for many, the recession proved to be deeper than had been initially expected back in March 2009. Conversely, our panellists' latest Septemberforecastsforthe US, Germany, France and Euro zone indicate that the recovery will be stronger than previously thought, with Q1 2010 expected to be the point where GDP finally registers some y-o-y growth.

机译：本月，我们探讨了一些七国集团（G-7）经济体中GDP季度预测趋势的重大变化。我们采用了本月的季度预测（可在第3,28和29页上全面获取），并将其与2009年3月和2009年6月发布的预测进行了对比（请参见下面的图表）。从这些图表可以看出，当前的下滑可能已在今年第一季度或第二季度触底。此外，对于许多人来说，经济衰退被证明比2009年3月的最初预期还要深。相反，我们的小组成员针对美国，德国，法国和欧元区的最新9月预测表明，2010年第一季度的复苏将比先前预期的要强劲。有望成为GDP最终实现同比增长的关键点。

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《Consensus Forecasts》 |2009年第9期|2-2|共1页
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7. Proposal for a COUNCIL REGULATION (EEC) opening and providing for the administration of Communitytariff quotas for certain products originating in the Republics of Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Slovenia and inthe territory of the former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia. Proposal for a COUNCIL REGULATION (EEC)establishing ceilings and Community surveillance for imports of certain products originating in theRepublics of Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Slovenia and inthe territory of the former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia (1993). Draft DECISION of the representatives of the Governments of the Member States of the European Coal and Steel Community, meeting within the Council establishing ceilings and Community surveillance forimports of certain products falling within the ECSC Treaty and originating in the Republics of Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Slovenia and in the territory of the former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia (1993) (presented by the Commission). COM(92) 558 final, 17 December 1992 [O] . 1992

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SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INTHE QUARTERLY CONSENSUS

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