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Analyzing Variability and the Rate of Decline of Migratory Shorebirds in Moreton Bay, Australia

机译：分析澳大利亚莫顿湾的迁徙水鸟的变异性和下降率

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Abstract: Estimating the abundance of migratory species is difficult because sources of variability differ substantially among species and populations. Recently developed state-space models address this variability issue by directly modeling both environmental and measurement error, although their efficacy in detecting declines is relatively untested for empirical data. We applied state-space modeling, generalized least squares (with autoregression error structure), and standard linear regression to data on abundance of wetland birds (shorebirds and terns) at Moreton Bay in southeast Queensland, Australia. There are internationally significant numbers of 8 species of waterbirds in the bay, and it is a major terminus of the large East Asian-Australasian Flyway. In our analyses, we considered 22 migrant and 8 resident species. State-space models identified abundances of 7 species of migrants as significantly declining and abundance of one species as significantly increasing. Declines in migrant abundance over 15 years were 43–79%. Generalized least squares with an autoregressive error structure showed abundance changes in 11 species, and standard linear regression showed abundance changes in 15 species. The higher power of the regression models meant they detected more declines, but they also were associated with a higher rate of false detections. If the declines in Moreton Bay are consistent with trends from other sites across the flyway as a whole, then a large number of species are in significant decline.
机译：摘要：由于物种和种群之间的变异性来源存在很大差异，因此很难估算出迁徙物种的数量。最近开发的状态空间模型通过直接对环境误差和测量误差进行建模来解决此可变性问题，尽管相对于经验数据而言，它们在检测下降中的功效尚未得到检验。我们将状态空间模型，广义最小二乘（具有自回归误差结构）和标准线性回归应用于澳大利亚昆士兰州东南部莫顿湾的湿地鸟类（水鸟和燕鸥）的数量数据。海湾上有8种水鸟在国际上占有重要地位，它是大型东亚-澳大利亚飞线的主要终点站。在我们的分析中，我们考虑了22个迁徙物种和8个常驻物种。国家空间模型确定了7种移民的丰度显着下降，而一种物种的丰度则显着增加。 15年内移民人数的下降幅度为43–79％。具有自回归误差结构的广义最小二乘法显示11种物种的丰度变化，标准线性回归显示15种物种的丰度变化。回归模型的强大功能意味着他们检测到了更多的下降，但它们也与更高的错误检测率相关。如果摩顿湾的下降与整个航道上其他地点的趋势一致，那么大量物种将明显下降。

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