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A Spatially Explicit Estimate of Avoided Forest Loss

机译：避免的森林损失的空间显式估计

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Abstract: With the potential expansion of forest conservation programs spurred by climate-change agreements, there is a need to measure the extent to which such programs achieve their intended results. Conventional methods for evaluating conservation impact tend to be biased because they do not compare like areas or account for spatial relations. We assessed the effect of a conservation initiative that combined designation of protected areas with payments for environmental services to conserve over wintering habitat for the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) in Mexico. To do so, we used a spatial-matching estimator that matches covariates among polygons and their neighbors. We measured avoided forest loss (avoided disturbance and deforestation) by comparing forest cover on protected and unprotected lands that were similar in terms of accessibility, governance, and forest type. Whereas conventional estimates of avoided forest loss suggest that conservation initiatives did not protect forest cover, we found evidence that the conservation measures are preserving forest cover. We found that the conservation measures protected between 200 ha and 710 ha (3–16%) of forest that is high-quality habitat for monarch butterflies, but had a smaller effect on total forest cover, preserving between 0 ha and 200 ha (0–2.5%) of forest with canopy cover >70%. We suggest that future estimates of avoided forest loss be analyzed spatially to account for how forest loss occurs across the landscape. Given the forthcoming demand from donors and carbon financiers for estimates of avoided forest loss, we anticipate our methods and results will contribute to future studies that estimate the outcome of conservation efforts.
机译：摘要：随着气候变化协议的推动，森林保护计划的潜在扩展，有必要衡量此类计划实现其预期成果的程度。评估保护影响的常规方法往往会产生偏差，因为它们不像面积那样进行比较，也不考虑空间关系。我们评估了一项保护计划的效果，该计划将保护区的指定与环境服务的付款相结合，以保护墨西哥的帝王蝶（Danaus plexippus）在越冬的栖息地。为此，我们使用了一个空间匹配估计量，该估计量匹配多边形及其相邻像素之间的协变量。通过比较在可及性，治理和森林类型方面相似的受保护和未受保护土地上的森林覆盖率，我们测量了避免的森林流失（避免的干扰和森林砍伐）。传统上避免的森林流失的估计表明保护措施并不能保护森林覆盖率，而我们发现了证据表明保护措施正在保护森林覆盖率。我们发现，保护措施保护了200公顷至710公顷（3–16％）的森林，该森林是帝王蝶的优质栖息地，但对森林总覆盖率的影响较小，保护范围为0公顷至200公顷（0 –2.5％）的森林覆盖率大于70％。我们建议对未来避免的森林流失的估计进行空间分析，以说明整个景观中森林流失的发生方式。鉴于捐助者和碳融资者对估计可避免的森林损失的需求日益增加，我们预计我们的方法和结果将有助于未来的研究，以估计保护工作的成果。

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