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Predictors of Occupancy Trend Across Spatial Scale

机译：跨空间尺度占用趋势的预测因子

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Abstract: Many explorations of extinction probability have had a global focus, yet it is unclear whether variables that explain the probability of extinction at large spatial extents are the same as those at small spatial extents. Thus, we used nearly annual presence–absence records for the most recent 40 years of a 110-year data set from Palenque, Mexico, an area with ongoing deforestation, to explore which of >200 species of birds have probabilities of extirpation that are likely to increase. We assessed associations between long-term trends in species presence (i.e., detection in a given year) and body size, geographic range size, diet, dependence on forest cover, taxonomy, and ecological specialization. Our response variable was the estimated slope of a weighted logistic regression for each species. We assessed the relative strength of each predictor by means of a model ranking scheme. Several variables associated with high extinction probability at global extents, such as large body size or small geographic range size, were not associated with occurrence of birds over time at our site. Body size was associated with species loss at Palenque, but occurrence trends of both very large and very small species, particularly the latter, have declined, or the species have been extirpated. We found no association between declining occurrence trend and geographic range size, yet decline correlated with whether a species depends on forest (mean occupancy trend =−0.0380, 0.0263, and 0.0186 for, respectively, species with high, intermediate, or low dependence on forest) and with complex combinations of diet and foraging strata (e.g., occurrence of canopy insectivores and terrestrial omnivores has increased, whereas occurrence of mid-level frugivores and terrestrial granivores has decreased). Our findings emphasize that analyses of local areas are necessary to explicate extirpation risk at various spatial extents.
机译：摘要：关于灭绝概率的许多研究已成为全球关注的焦点，但尚不清楚解释大空间范围内灭绝概率的变量是否与小空间范围内的变量相同。因此，我们使用了来自墨西哥帕伦克（森林砍伐持续不断的地区）的110年数据集中最近40年的近一年无记录记录，以探讨> 200种鸟类中哪些可能灭绝增加。我们评估了物种存在的长期趋势（即在给定年份中的发现）与体重，地理范围大小，饮食，对森林覆盖的依赖性，分类学和生态专业化之间的关联。我们的响应变量是每种物种的加权逻辑回归的估计斜率。我们通过模型排名方案评估了每个预测变量的相对强度。在全球范围内，与高灭绝概率相关的一些变量，例如较大的体型或较小的地理范围大小，与我们站点上随着时间推移而出现的鸟类无关。体型大小与帕伦克的物种流失有关，但是非常大和非常小的物种，特别是后者的出现趋势已经下降，或者物种已经灭绝。我们发现下降趋势与地理范围大小之间没有关联，但下降与物种是否依赖于森林相关（对于高，中或低依赖森林的物种的平均占用趋势分别为-0.0380、0.0263和0.0186 ）以及饮食和觅食层的复杂组合（例如，冠层食肉动物和陆生杂食动物的发生增加，而中层食肉动物和陆生食肉动物的发生则减少）。我们的研究结果强调，对局部区域进行分析对于在不同的空间范围内阐明灭绝风险很有必要。

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