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首页> 外文期刊>Conservation Biology >Matching the Multiple Scales of Conservation with the Multiple Scales of Climate Change
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Matching the Multiple Scales of Conservation with the Multiple Scales of Climate Change

机译：使多种保护规模与多种气候变化相匹配

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Abstract: To anticipate the rapidly changing world resulting from global climate change, the projections of climate models must be incorporated into conservation. This requires that the scales of conservation be aligned with the scales of climate-change projections. We considered how conservation has incorporated spatial scale into protecting biodiversity, how the projections of climate-change models vary with scale, and how the two do or do not align. Conservation planners use information about past and current ecological conditions at multiple scales to identify conservation targets and threats and guide conservation actions. Projections of climate change are also made at multiple scales, from global and regional circulation models to projections downscaled to local scales. These downscaled projections carry with them the uncertainties associated with the broad-scale models from which they are derived; thus, their high resolution may be more apparent than real. Conservation at regional or global scales is about establishing priorities and influencing policy. At these scales, the coarseness and uncertainties of global and regional climate models may be less important than what they reveal about possible futures. At the ecoregional scale, the uncertainties associated with downscaling climate models become more critical because the distributions of conservation targets on which plans are founded may shift under future climates. At a local scale, variations in topography and land cover influence local climate, often overriding the projections of broad-scale climate models and increasing uncertainty. Despite the uncertainties, ecologists and conservationists must work with climate-change modelers to focus on the most likely projections. The future will be different from the past and full of surprises; judicious use of model projections at appropriate scales may help us prepare.
机译：摘要：要预测由全球气候变化导致的快速变化的世界，必须将气候模型的预测纳入保护范围。这就要求保护的规模与气候变化预测的规模保持一致。我们考虑了保护如何将空间尺度纳入保护生物多样性，气候变化模型的预测如何随尺度变化以及二者如何一致。保护规划者使用有关过去和当前生态状况的信息，可以在多个尺度上确定保护目标和威胁，并指导保护行动。从全球和区域环流模型到缩小到地方尺度的预测，气候变化的预测也有多个尺度。这些缩小的预测带来了与它们所源自的大规模模型有关的不确定性；因此，它们的高分辨率可能比真实的更为明显。在区域或全球范围内的保护都是关于确定优先次序和影响政策。在这些尺度上，全球和区域气候模型的粗糙性和不确定性可能不如它们揭示的有关未来可能的重要性那么重要。在生态区域范围内，与降尺度的气候模型相关的不确定性变得更加关键，因为根据其计划制定的保护目标的分布可能会在未来的气候下发生变化。在当地范围内，地形和土地覆盖的变化会影响当地的气候，通常会覆盖大规模气候模型的预测并增加不确定性。尽管存在不确定性，但生态学家和保护主义者必须与气候变化建模者一起致力于最可能的预测。未来将与过去不同，充满惊喜。适当地使用模型预测可以帮助我们做好准备。

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