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Projected Climate Impacts for the Amphibians of the Western Hemisphere

机译：预计对西半球两栖动物的气候影响

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Abstract: Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.
机译：摘要：由于两栖动物的生理需求，有限的扩散能力和对水文敏感的栖息地，它们可能对未来的气候变化高度敏感。我们使用了三种方法来绘制西半球两栖动物特别容易受到气候变化影响的区域的地图。首先，我们基于2071年至2100年的20个气候模拟，使用生物气候模型来预测413种两栖动物物种分布中潜在的气候驱动变化。我们总结了这些预测，以估计物种的周转率。其次，我们绘制了1099种地理范围有限的物种的分布图。最后，通过使用20个未来的气候变化模拟，我们绘制了一致预计在下个世纪收到较少季节性降水的地区的地图，因此很可能改变了小气候和当地水文。预计在安第斯山脉以及中美洲和墨西哥的部分地区，物种的周转率最高，在两种排放情景中的较低者中，周转率平均超过60％。我们的距离变化分析中未包括的许多限制范围物种都集中在安第斯山脉和中美洲的部分地区以及巴西的大西洋森林中。一直预计到本世纪末，中美洲，北美洲西南部的大部分地区和南美洲的部分地区降水将减少。将这三项分析的结果结合起来，就突出了几个方面，由于多种原因，两栖动物可能会受到气候变化的重大影响。同时预计中美洲南部的部分地区将经历较高的物种周转，拥有许多其他的限制范围物种，并始终如一地预计将收到较少的降水。我们的三项分析共同构成了两栖动物对气候变化的地理脆弱性的一项潜在评估，因此为指导保护工作提供了广泛的指导。

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