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A stochastic model of cash How forecasting considering delays in owners' payments

机译：现金的随机模型如何预测考虑所有者付款的延迟

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摘要

Delays in progress payments have always been one of the most aggravating difficulties, threatening the desired profit margin and should be considered based on the owners' financial records at the bidding stage. However, previous models have often ignored the probabilistic nature of cash inflow. The conducted research endeavours to develop a new stochastic simulation-based framework for forecasting the cash flow of the construction projects considering the owners' payment history in previous projects and intertemporal correlation between successive progress payments. This process involves introducing the Budget Realization Index, with probabilistic nature, whose underlying distribution is determined based on the owners' behaviour. The model was applied to four real projects in Iran. The financing costs inflicted on the contractors stood in the range of the simulation results in the uncertainty level of 50-80%. Therefore, the proposed systematic framework would appropriately perform for forecasting contractors'financial status through the project.
机译：拖延进度付款一直是最严重的困难之一，威胁到期望的利润率，应在投标阶段根据业主的财务记录进行考虑。但是，以前的模型通常忽略了现金流入的概率性质。进行的研究致力于开发一种新的基于随机模拟的框架，该框架考虑了先前项目中业主的付款历史以及后续进度付款之间的时间间相关性，来预测建筑项目的现金流量。该过程涉及引入具有概率性质的预算实现指数，其基础分配是根据所有者的行为来确定的。该模型已应用于伊朗的四个实际项目。在不确定性水平为50-80％的情况下，对承包商造成的融资成本处于模拟结果的范围之内。因此，建议的系统框架将适当地执行，以通过该项目预测承包商的财务状况。

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