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Dualities and dilemmas: contending with uncertainty in large-scale safety-critical projects

机译：双重性和困境：应对大型安全关键项目的不确定性

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摘要

Uncertainty is a fact of project life. Most decisions that are made on a safety-critical project involve uncertainty, the consequences of which may be highly significant to the safe and timely delivery of the project. Based on interviews with project management practitioners on nine large-scale civil nuclear and aerospace projects, we explore how uncertainty emerges, and how project management practitioners identify, analyse and act on it. We make three important contributions. First, we present three approaches - structural, behavioural and relational - that individuals and organizations can adopt when contending with project uncertainty. Secondly, we characterize nine dualities at play in the management of project uncertainty and thirdly, we identify key differences between how civil nuclear and aerospace project managers confront project uncertainty, which have important implications for how projects might be organized in both these industry sectors. Drawing attention to the structural, behavioural and relational approaches to project uncertainty and the tensions that manifest themselves in each approach should enable the project management community to make progress in environments of high uncertainty where situations are often complex, rapidly changing and confusing, and yet where, for reasons of safety, failure is not an option.
机译：不确定性是项目生命的事实。对安全性至关重要的项目做出的大多数决定都涉及不确定性，不确定性的后果对于安全，及时地交付项目可能具有重大意义。在对9个大型民用核能和航空航天项目的项目管理从业人员进行访谈的基础上，我们探讨了不确定性是如何产生的，以及项目管理从业人员如何识别，分析并采取行动。我们做出三个重要的贡献。首先，我们提出了三种方法–结构，行为和关系–个人和组织在应对项目不确定性时可以采用的方法。其次，我们描述了项目不确定性管理中发挥的九种对偶特征，其次，我们确定了民用核能和航空航天项目经理如何应对项目不确定性之间的关键差异，这对于这两个行业部门如何组织项目具有重要意义。提请注意用于项目不确定性的结构，行为和关系方法，以及每种方法中所表现出的紧张关系，应使项目管理界能够在情况往往复杂，快速变化和令人困惑，而又在何处存在的高度不确定性环境中取得进展，出于安全原因，不能选择失败。

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  • 来源
    《Construction Management and Economics》 |2016年第9期|657-675|共19页
  • 作者

    FIONA C. SAUNDERS; ANDREW H. SHERRY; ANDREW W. GALE;

  • 作者单位

    School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, The University of Manchester, Pariser Building, Sackville Street, Manchester M13 9PL, UK;

    National Nuclear Laboratory, Chadwick House, Warrington Road, Birchwood Park, Warrington, WA3 6AE, UK,Dalton Nuclear Institute, The University of Manchester, Pariser Building, Sackville Street, Manchester M13 9PL, UK;

    School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, The University of Manchester, Pariser Building, Sackville Street, Manchester M13 9PL, UK;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Aerospace; nuclear; project management; safety; uncertainty;

    机译：航天;核;项目管理;安全;不确定;

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