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An entropy-based financial decision support system (e-FDSS) for project analysis in construction SMEs

机译：基于熵的建筑中小企业分析项目的财务决策支持系统（e-FDSS）

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Uncertainty contributes a major part in the accuracy of a decision-making process while its inconsistency is always difficult to be solved by existing decision-making tools. Entropy has been proved to be useful to evaluate the inconsistency of uncertainty among different respondents. The study demonstrates an entropy-based financial decision support system called e-FDSS. This integrated system provides decision support to evaluate attributes (funding options and multiple risks) available in projects. Fuzzy logic theory is included in the system to deal with the qualitative aspect of these options and risks. An adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) is also employed to solve the decision algorithm in the system in order to provide optimal and consistent rates to these attributes. Seven simplified and parallel projects from a Hong Kong construction small and medium enterprise (SME) were assessed to evaluate the system. The result shows that the system calculates risk adjusted discount rates (RADR) of projects in an objective way. These rates discount project cash flow impartially. Inconsistency of uncertainty is also successfully evaluated by the use of the entropy method. Finally, the system identifies the favourable funding options that are managed by a scheme called SME Loan Guarantee Scheme (SGS). Based on these results, resource allocation could then be optimized and the best time to start a new project could also be identified throughout the overall project life cycle.
机译：不确定性是决策过程准确性的主要部分，而其不一致之处始终很难通过现有的决策工具来解决。事实证明，熵对于评估不同受访者之间不确定性的不一致很有用。该研究证明了一种基于熵的财务决策支持系统，称为e-FDSS。该集成系统提供决策支持，以评估项目中可用的属性（资金选择和多种风险）。系统中包括模糊逻辑理论，以处理这些选择和风险的定性方面。自适应遗传算法（AGA）也用于解决系统中的决策算法，以便为这些属性提供最佳且一致的速率。评估了香港一家建筑业中小企业（SME）的七个简化的并行项目，以评估该系统。结果表明，该系统以客观的方式计算了项目的风险调整折现率（RADR）。这些利率公平地折算了项目现金流量。通过使用熵方法也可以成功地评估不确定性的不一致性。最后，系统确定了由中小企业贷款担保计划（SGS）计划管理的有利融资方案。根据这些结果，可以优化资源分配，并且可以在整个项目生命周期中确定启动新项目的最佳时间。

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