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The effect of concession period design on completion risk management of BOT projects

机译：特许期设计对BOT项目完工风险管理的影响

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摘要

The design of concession period for build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects is crucial to financial viability and completion risk management. A systematic analysis shows that concession period design involves the design of concession period structure, the determination of the concession period length and incentive schemes. The concession period may have a single-period structure or a two-period structure, its length may be fixed or variable, and it may be combined with incentive schemes. Different designs reflect different risk control strategies for completion time overruns. The single-period concession structure requires the project company to assume completion risk, while the two-period concession structure could, to some extent, reduce the completion risk exposure to the project company, depending on the incentive schemes. Through Monte Carlo simulation, this paper evaluates the mean net present value (NPV), variance and NPV-at-risk of different concession period structures so that both the government and the concessionaires can understand their risk exposure and rewards. The paper then analyses the influence of project characteristics on concession period design to evaluate the feasibility of the design. It is concluded that a well-designed concession period structure can create a 'win-win' solution for both project promoter and the host government.
机译：建造－运营－转让（BOT）项目的特许期设计对于财务可行性和完工风险管理至关重要。系统分析表明，特许期设计涉及特许期结构的设计，特许期限的确定和激励方案的确定。优惠期可以是单期结构，也可以是两期结构，其长度可以是固定的，也可以是可变的，可以与激励方案结合使用。不同的设计反映了针对完成时间超限的不同风险控制策略。单期特许权结构要求项目公司承担完工风险，而双期特许权结构可以在一定程度上降低激励对象对项目公司的完工风险。通过蒙特卡洛模拟，本文评估了不同特许期结构的平均净现值（NPV），方差和NPV风险，从而使政府和特许公司都能了解其风险敞口和回报。然后，分析了项目特征对特许期设计的影响，以评估设计的可行性。结论是，精心设计的特许期限结构可以为项目发起人和东道国政府创造“双赢”的解决方案。

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